Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

5/14/18

The Market

         

    Technical

            It was a noteworthy week for the S&P, having broken to the upside out of a four and one half month pennant formation.  It also finished above its 100 day moving average for a second day (now resistance; if it closes there through the close today, it will revert to support).  Once that MA has been overcome, the next meaningful resistance level is its last all-time high.

            The long Treasury had a good three day bounce off the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  On Friday, it touched a minor resistance level.  Even if it succeeds in pushing higher, it still faces its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the upper boundary of a short term downtrend.  In other words, the momentum on a long term basis is to the downside (higher rates).

            The dollar unsuccessfully challenged the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  Given the recent upward momentum, it will likely make another try.  In the meantime, it has continuing support from its 100 and 200 day moving averages.

            Gold had a decent week, bouncing off of its 200 day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  Nevertheless, it couldn’t push through its 100 day moving average.  Right now, it seems pretty much tied to the performance of TLT and UUP, both of which had countertrend moves last week.

            The VIX had a rough week as you might expect.  It is now below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), its 200 day moving average for a third day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance) and the lower boundary of its short term trading range for the second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a downtrend).  I have marked the downtrend since early February as a very short term downtrend; but if the short term trend resets, it will become the short term downtrend.  This pin action points to higher stock prices.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

      

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

    Other

            ECB member says end of QE is drawing nigh (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-14/ecbs-villeroy-spooks-europe-end-qe-talk-spikes-eur-bund-yields

           

            Trump backs off China trade threat (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-13/trump-backs-down-china-threat-instructs-commerce-dept-rescue-zte

            QE and the banks (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-13/monetization-trumps-fundamentals

What I am reading today

            Quote of the day (short):

            http://cafehayek.com/2018/05/quotation-of-the-day-2431.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

           

            HSBC completes first finance/trade transaction using Blockchain technology (medium):

            https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-13/hsbc-completes-first-trade-finance-deal-using-blockchain-opening-9-trillion-market

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