The Morning Call
4/16/18
The
Market
Technical
Short
term the S&P is struggling. It
remains in a very short term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average. Still it has a lot of long term support from
all major uptrends and its 200 day moving average. Until it starts challenging these levels, the
assumption remains that the primary trend is up.
The
long Treasury was up, maintaining the now two month bounce off the lower boundary of its long term uptrend (very
short term uptrend). On the other hand,
it remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within a short term downtrend. But as you can see, the range is narrowing between
lower boundary of the very short term uptrend (support) and its 100 and 200 day
moving averages. I have opined that a
move out of this range will likely lead to a further move in the direction of
the break.
The
bond market has a problem (medium):
The
dollar was unchanged on Friday of decent volume; and that summarizes much about
its trading pattern over the last week.
I have noted that this is a bit unusual when the long bond is making the
kind of solid upward move it has made over the last two months (when TLT moves
up, it generally includes foreign investors who have to buy dollars in order to
buy TLT). All that said, its chart is
ugly as it remains below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and an
intermediate term downtrend.
Gold
remains in a short term uptrend and above its 100 and 200 day moving
averages. However, as you can see, it
has been unable to rise above its February high, suggesting that a wedge pattern
may be developing---the breaking of which would be predictive of a further move in the direction
of the break.
The
VIX sold off on Friday on a down Market day.
Several times last week, it broke with its usual inverse correlation with
equity prices. I have no idea why; nor
have I seen any satisfactory explanation for the performance. That said, while it remains above the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend and its 100 and 200 day moving averages, it
certainly looks like these support levels are about to be challenged. Normally, that would mean better stock
prices; now???
Fundamental
Headlines
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
March
retail sales rose 0.6% versus expectations of +0.4%; ex autos , they were up
0.2%, in line.
The
April New York Fed manufacturing index came in at 15.8 versus estimates of
18.2.
International
Other
What
I am reading today
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