Friday, January 5, 2018

The Morning Call--Sustainability

The Morning Call

1/5/18
The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 25075, S&P 2723) continued their relentless drive upward. Volume was down but still high; breadth strong.  The bottom line remains that both of the Averages continue to trade above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames---with the assumption being that stock prices are going higher.
           
The VIX (9.2) was up slightly (somewhat unusual on a strong up day), but still closed below its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both resistance), in a very short term downtrend but above the lower boundary of its long term trading range.

The long Treasury was down slightly, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and long term uptrend and right on the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.   So bond investors remain unconvinced that rates are rising or they are looking for a safety trade.

The dollar resumed its downward trend, finishing below its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now resistance), in a short term downtrend and near the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  Dollar investors also aren’t anticipating higher rates/economic strength nor the need for a safety trade.

            Gold was up, remaining above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (now support), within a short term trading range and is developing a very short term uptrend. 

Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends. The technical assumption has to be that stocks are going higher.  If you own enough cash to sleep at night, lay back and enjoy it.
                       
Trading in UUP, GLD and TLT continued to reflect the belief that the economy that is less strong and/or that there is less upward pressure on interest rates than consensus.    I remain confused and uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

Yesterday’s economic continued the trend of improvement: the December ADP private payroll report, the December Markit services PMI and December retail chain store sales were better than expected, while weekly jobless claims rose.

Overseas, the December EU composite PMI, the UK services PMI and the Chinese Caixin services PMI were all above forecasts.

***overnight, December EU inflation came in at 1.4% versus 1.5% in November.

Bottom line: the synchronized global recovery thesis was front and center yesterday.  And that is understandable; the numbers look great.  The question is how sustainable are they?  This growth is occurring at a time when (1) the global recovery, however, subpar it may have been, has reached an historical old age, raising the question of how much demand is left to be filled and (2) this recovery has been driven by an extraordinary expansion in debt which has to be serviced, raising the question of how any unfilled demand will be paid for.  

Plus, stock valuations leave little room for a shortfall.

Clearly, my skepticism based on equity valuations has been wrong to date.  That said, I believe it is much too late to repent and increase my Market exposure.  The good news is that our Portfolios are still 50% invested.

Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but be sure your portfolio has some protection like cash.

       Investing for Survival
   
            Doug Kass’s 15 predictions for 2018---Part 2:

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The December Markit services PMI came in at 53.7 versus forecasts of 52.4.

            December retail chain store sales improved on a year over year basis.

            December nonfarm payrolls were up 148,000 versus expectations of up 191,000.

            The November trade deficit was $50.5 billion versus estimates of $50.0 billion.

   Other

            EU regulations on paying for equity research and trading are changing.  You need to be aware of the possible consequences (medium):

            This is a 2018 forecast from my favorite optimist.  I think that he makes a number of very good points with respect to the prospects for economic growth; and certainly, he could be right.  But I think that he wrong on a key point, which is the reinvestment of funds distributed to shareholders being a source of economic growth.  That would be true if investors put that money in private equity deals that are the primary source of funding new businesses.  As it is, the money gets reinvested in the same set of stocks of companies that are buying back stock and upping their dividends, which only results in driving equity prices higher---something he skips over.  In any case, he provides a good counterpoint to my outlook that is worth considering.

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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