Friday, October 6, 2017

The Morning Call--A step forward for tax reform

The Morning Call

10/6/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 22775, S&P 2552) continued their relentless advance, yesterday not so slow.  Volume was up marginally; breadth continued to strengthen.  Both remain above their 100 and 200 day moving averages and are in uptrends across all time frames. 
           
            And:

The VIX (9.2) was down 4 ½ %, ending its string of positive performances on up Market days.  It ended below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, below the lower boundary of its long term trading range for a seventh day; but it is still above its July low. 

The long Treasury declined, but finished above its 200 day moving average (support) and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend.  However, it is below its 100 day (now resistance) and is developing a very short term downtrend.

The dollar rose, but remained in its short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  It is developing a very short term uptrend.
           
GLD fell, trading below its 100 moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will revert to resistance), above its 200 day moving averages (support) and the lower boundary of a short term uptrend.  However, it is developing a very short term downtrend.

 Bottom line: long term, the indices remain strong viz a viz their moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes. Short term, they are above the resistance level marked by their August highs, meaning that there is no resistance between current price levels and the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends.  

The nonstock indices traded in line stocks yesterday---everybody getting jiggy about tax reform.

I remain uncomfortable with the overall technical picture.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The US economic dataflow continues its winning way.  Yesterday, the August trade deficit was lower than expected, as were weekly jobless claims while factory orders (primary indicator) were above consensus.

            Overseas, US and South Korean trade representatives announced that they would amend the trade pact between the two countries.  While we don’t know the specific terms, given Trump’s drive for more ‘fair’ trade, I am going to assume that the net effect of any changes will be a plus for the US.

            ***overnight, August German industrial orders were better than anticipated; the Japanese trade minister arrived in Washington for second round of talks; Hurricane Nate takes aim at Gulf states.

            The biggest news of the day was the house passed its version of the FY2018 budget; while the senate version was voted out of committee.  I am not sure of the timing of a full senate vote, but clearly the senate is a step closer. 

A couple of observations:

(1)   this is a solid step towards tax reform,

(2)   that said, Ryan is already scaling back some of the provisions of tax reform,

(3)   plus, given the painfully slow sausage making legislative process, congress is going to have to move at rapid [for it] pace in order to pass tax reform in 2017.

Bottom line: with more good economic numbers and actual action by the ruling class, it is not surprising that investors were in a good mood yesterday.  That said, I am sticking with my opinion that it is way too soon to (1) be forecasting an economic liftoff after a single week’s upbeat numbers and (2) assume [a] tax reform is around the corner and [b] even if it is, that it will be a big plus for the economy.  As I have opined previously, a non-revenue neutral tax bill will be a negative; and if it is revenue neutral, it is unlikely to be as stimulative as is currently being hoped.        

            Don’t try to predict the next recession (medium):

            This time isn’t different (medium):

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

            August factory orders were up 1.2% versus expectations of up 1.0%.

            The September employment report showed a 33,000 decline versus projections of a 100,000 increase.
           
   Other

            Update on money supply (medium):

            ECB policy meeting scheduled for next week (short):

            America’s most bankrupt cities (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Increasingly likely that Trump will decertify Iran nuclear deal (medium):

            The constitutional crisis in Catalonia worsens (medium):

            Russia increases economic support for North Korea (medium):

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