Tuesday, August 29, 2017

The Morning Call--Waiting for Trump's response

The Morning Call

8/29/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21808, S&P 2444) had a mixed day (S&P up, Dow down).    Volume was flat, remaining at a low level; breadth was mixed.  The S&P remains in focus; yesterday, it (1) closed below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend [that boundary is rising faster than the stock price]; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a trading range, (2) continues to develop a very short term downtrend and (3) also could potentially be forming a head and shoulders pattern.  To be clear, the index is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and, at the moment, in uptrends across all timeframes.  So the aforementioned potential negatives are just that---potential negatives.    Meanwhile, the Dow isn’t close to challenging any support level.

The VIX (11.3) rose fractionally, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and its 100 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on today, it will revert to resistance).  However, it ended back above its 200 day moving average, negating Friday’s break and finished above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  I am left questioning whether or not the VIX has bottomed.

The long Treasury was off slightly, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 
           
The dollar got whacked hard again, closing in a short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and below the lower boundary of its short term trading range---if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend. 
           
 GLD was up again, on volume again, finishing above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to an uptrend). 

Bottom line: the S&P continues to struggle, technically speaking, over the short term.  Whether or not this pin action turns into something negative remains to be seen. In the meantime, long term its uptrend remains intact supported by a less technically challenged DJIA. 

TLT, GLD and UUP continue to point to a weak/sluggish economy, lower inflation and soft interest rates.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The economic releases yesterday were mixed to negative: July US exports and imports fell, July retail and wholesale inventories came in below expectations but the August Dallas Fed manufacturing index was stronger than estimated.

            The devastation on the Texas coast was the main headline yesterday.  While the Market action was somewhat subdued, given the magnitude of the storm, it is apt to have a noticeable impact September economic numbers, oil/gasoline prices and some third quarter earnings reports.  Whether that in turn effects stock prices remains to be seen.

                        And:

Late in the day, North Korea fired a missile that carried over the northern part of Japan---a very provocative move that will likely determine today’s pin action.  Perhaps more important will be how the US and allies respond.

                And:

Bottom line: the economic news is not nearly as positive as the ruling class would have you believe---and Hurricane Harvey’s effect will not help.  The central bankers are threatening to tighten monetary policy, which I doubt; but if they do start unwinding QEInfinity, I don’t believe that will be a plus for stock prices.   So far, the only thing that the GOP dominated congress can pass is gas.  Trump continues to persist in making the achievement of his own agenda more difficult by insulting and threatening the very people he needs to accomplish it.  And now, the North Koreans are poking their finger in Trump’s eye.  Of course, this could all end well, despite the drama.  It better because that is the way stocks are priced.

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            More on valuations (medium):

            My thought for the day: the average investor has a major problem selling.  To do so is admitting that he/she made a buying error.  Then if he/she does sell and the stock bounces back, then he/she would have to admit to a second mistake.  I think that this has things backward.  If a stock is moving lower, the worst outcome would be for it to continue to decline and a small loss turns into a big loss.  If the investor makes a sale and the stock rebounds, there is no loss.  His/her portfolio doesn’t know that the stock is up.  All it knows is that it took a small loss.  Further, no transaction whether a purchase or a sale is irrevocable.  There is no rule that says an investor can’t buy back a stock at a price higher than the prior sale.  Surely the original reason(s) for buying the stock incorporated a profit objective sufficiently high that the real consequence will be achieving a smaller profit that would have otherwise occurred.  So the equation is risk taking a major loss or risk making a smaller profit.  That is not an equation.

       Investing for Survival
   
            Are individual bonds safer than bond funds?

        
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): Q3 EPS of C$1.66 beats by C$0.01.
Revenue of C$6.89B (+3.8% Y/Y)

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 0.79/share quarterly dividend, 3.9% increase from prior dividend of CAD 0.76.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The August Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 17.0 versus expectations of 15.7.

                Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

            The June Case Shiller home price index rose 0.1% versus projections of up 0.3%.

   Other

            This is a good discussion of the consequences of a trade war with China.  But the author admits the charges of theft of intellectual property are valid.  True both sides may be hurt by a trade war, but the US is already being hurt.  So do we stand and fight or run away? (medium):

            Here is another good discussion; this one on the politics/economics of tax reform.  I am not sure how qualified the author is to project the results on to stock prices. (medium):

            Housing bubble, part 2 (medium):

            Big bank concentration and counterparty risk (medium and today’s must read):

Politics

  Domestic

A second opinion of Joe Arpaio (medium):

One man’s experience in the Berkley riots (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam


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