After the S&P’s unsuccessful challenge of the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend week before last, it followed up with a pretty ragged performance last week. Though I am not trying make too big a deal over this pin action. As I have been pointing out, prices haven’t been able to generate any kind of sustained directional move despite both positive and negative developments that have been significant. At the moment, I think we have to continue to focus on the long term which clearly shows that the index has a lot of support beneath it in the form of both moving averages and all major trends. Until those support levels are successfully challenged, the assumption has to be that prices are going higher.
The long Treasury has pushed out of a four month trading range to the upside. Notice the price gap down in mid-November 2016. It is a technical theorem that a gap ultimately gets filled. At the moment, there seems to be little to prevent TLT to at least accomplish that---which, if that occurs, will put it into a position of challenging its 200 day moving average.
As you can see, GLD is about to stage a challenge of its short term downtrend. It has some decent momentum having turned its 100 and 200 day moving averages to support. If it is successful, then there is little resistance under it reaches the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range. If not, its 100 day moving average provides support.
Last week, the dollar failed in its challenges of its 200 day moving average and the very short term downtrend. That is not surprising in that having to overcome two resistance levels simultaneously is tough. Not helping is Trump trying to talk the dollar down; although that clearly isn’t the last word. At the moment, the boundaries of UUP’s very short term downtrend and short term uptrend are converging. That is what I am watching for directional guidance.
It sure looks like complacency is in the rear view mirror. Last week, the VIX successfully challenged its 200 day moving average (now support) and the upper boundary of a short term downtrend (resetting to a trading range).
***overnight, first quarter Chinese GDP plus March retail sales and factory output were all better than expected.
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The April NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 5.2 versus estimates of 15.0.
Americans are hardly overtaxed (short):
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International War Against Radical Islam
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