Monday, April 10, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

            The S&P remains above both moving averages and in uptrends across all major timeframes.  However, it has been unable to break above the upper boundary of a very short term uptrend.  It did make a determined intraday try on Wednesday but failed.  That said, last week’s economic numbers as well as the ruling class actions gave the bulls every reason to give up the ship.  But they held in.  As I noted on Friday ‘It seems like no matter the import of a headline (development), it is not enough to jar either buyers or sellers loose from their pre-existing investment scenarios.  So it would appear that it will take something extraordinary to break that mindset.’

            The long Treasury keeps trying (six times) to break above that minor resistance level but has been unsuccessful.  That trend line along with the lower boundary of its short term trading range seem like the battle lines between the forces betting for Trumpflation versus those wagering on a weakening economy.  As long as TLT remains within those boundaries, the fight goes on; a move above minor resistance---economic weakness; a move below the lower boundary of the short term trading range---Trumpflation.

            The dollar looks like it is about to affirm the Trumpflation trade.  It is in a short term uptrend, above its 100 day moving average (now support), above its 200 day moving average (now resistance; but if it remains there through the close Wednesday, it will revert to support) and right on the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend

            GLD traded up on volume, finishing above its 100 day moving average and a short term downtrend.  Like TLT and UUP, GLD attempted to challenge a resistance level (in this case, its 200 day moving average) but was unsuccessful. 

            As you can see, the VIX is being gradually squeezed by a rising lower boundary of a very short term downtrend and its 100 day moving average and a declining upper boundary of a short term downtrend and its 200 day moving average.  As long as it remains within these converging trends, little can be confidently said about its direction.  However, a break above or below these support/resistance points would likely provide that directional guidance.



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   This Week’s Data


            Update on consumer debt (short):

            Update on C&I loans (medium):

            Trade concessions from China? (medium):



  International War Against Radical Islam

            Russia/Iran respond to US cruise missile attack (medium):

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