Thursday, March 23, 2017

The Morning Call--Trump's reputation may be riding on the house deal

The Morning Call

3/23/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 20661, S&P 2348) had a mixed day (Dow down, S&P up).  Volume fell; breadth was weak.   The VIX (12.8) was up another 2 ¾ %, ending above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will revert to support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and in a short term downtrend.  It appears that the thesis that the period of complacency could be ending remains in place.
               
The Dow closed [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term uptrend {19115-21431}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11884-24736} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5751-23298}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {2234-2568}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {2072-2676} and [e] in a long term uptrend {881-2561}.

The long Treasury was up 0.50%, but closing above its right on its 100 day moving average (now resistance; if it remains there through the close of Friday, it will revert to support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and in a very short term downtrend.

GLD rose slightly, finishing above its 100 day moving average (now support), below its 200 day moving average (now resistance) and within a short term downtrend. 

The dollar fell, ending below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), above its 200 day moving averages (now support) and in a short term uptrend.

Bottom line: investors appeared to go the sidelines to await the final disposition of the Trumpcare vote (today, sometime); but both of the Averages remained below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend---negating those trends.

There clearly was little follow through to the downside which I think reflects the continuing underlying bid in the Market---or at the very least, an unwillingness to give up on the post-election Trump euphoria.  With the voiding of the Averages very short term uptrends, the most visible downside support has shifted to the lower boundaries of their short term uptrends.

The pin action in gold, the long Treasury and the dollar are all pointing to a lower magnitude and/or longer time horizon for the Trump fiscal program.   
           
            Trump trade 1.0 is over (medium):

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Two housing datapoints were released yesterday, neither good and one a primary indicator: weekly mortgage and purchase applications fell while existing home sales declined more than anticipated.  Nothing overseas.

            ***overnight, banks scramble for free ECB money (medium):

            The Market spent the day seemingly trying to digest Tuesday’s shellacking together with the odds Trumpcare passing the house vote today.  Consensus appears to be congealing around the notion that the bill will squeak by the house and be DOA in the senate.  Of course, we knew the latter well before anyone thought to be negative about the odds of passage in the house.  Meaning house approval was, is and will be irrelevant.  But, but, but, investors may be viewing the house vote as a key to Trump’s vaunted ability to cut a deal.  If he can’t, then magic would be over.  So in that sense, it could be critical. 

Bottom line: whatever happens, I continue to believe that the success of the Trump fiscal plan has been priced for perfection; it may occur in some form but the magnitude and timing have likely been over estimated by the Market.

            Thoughts from Barry Ritholtz (medium and a must read):

            An optimistic appraisal of valuations (medium):

            Old age adages about the stock market (short):

            My thought for the day: by identifying the right entry price for a stock, you create an advantageous risk/reward for yourself.  That is a major reason I created my pricing model with its price disciplines---to insure that a stock is bought only when it is near an historical relative price low thereby reducing the risk of significant downside.

       Investing for Survival
  
            Myths in investing #6

                While I agree that long term gold does not provide a very good hedge for your Portfolio, it can be quite useful as a sedative in the midst of a bear market.  It just has to be traded off the charts.


   
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q4 EPS of $1.33 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $8.32B (+4.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            February existing home sales fell 3.7% versus expectations of down 2.3%.

                Weekly jobless claims rose 15,000 versus estimates of a 1,000 decline.

   Other

            More on declining used car sales (medium):

            Art bubble popping (medium):

            And for the trifecta, update on student loans (medium):

            Problems in the Chinese banking sector (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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