Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/6/17

The Market

         

    Technical

            There is nothing to add to my prior comments.  Stock prices are heading up and nothing suggests that the S&P won’t challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (2561). 

The most un-fun bubble ever (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-05/most-un-fun-bubble-ever

            

            The long Treasury rallied enough on Friday to put it back on the lower boundary of the developing pennant formation.  Successfully challenging either of the boundaries of this pattern would suggest additional price movement in the direction of the break.  A move down would mean higher interest rates.  TLT remained below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a very short term downtrend---all of which exert a downward price bias on TLT.

            GLD’s chart took a turn for the worse last week.  Its very short term uptrend was negated and it remained below its 200 day moving average and in a short term downtrend.  It is holding above its 100 day moving average, keeping alive the hope that its pin action could improve.

            The dollar has moved up enough to set a very short term uptrend, which supports the weight being provided by its 100 and 200 day moving averages and its short term uptrend.

            Given the Market’s Wednesday moonshot, it is not surprising to see the VIX (10.9) suffer some whackage.  It is now well below its 100 and 200 day moving averages, in a short term downtrend and is again approaching the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (10.3)---a level that indicates significant complacency.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            A bit long but this is a great must read strategy piece from Citi.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-05/citis-matt-king-we-think-you-should-sell

       Investing for Survival

   

            The outlook for medicare and social security.

            http://alephblog.com/2017/02/11/the-financial-report-of-the-united-states-government-2016/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            More on the growing pension insolvency problem (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-03/pension-benefit-guarantee-corporation-running-out-cash-millions-affected

            China cuts economic growth forecast (medium)

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-05/china-cuts-economic-growth-forecast-among-reform-push-here-are-key-changes

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2017/03/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-225.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International War Against Radical Islam

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