This is the most important chart today. On Friday, the S&P closed below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains below it through end of trading on Tuesday, the trend will reset to a trading range. As you can also see, it is very near its 100 day moving average; so much so that if the S&P does continue to decline, that MA will soon revert to resistance. To be clear, neither of these support levels has been successfully challenged yet. Plus the Dow remains some distance from its comparable support levels. So while the yellow light has started to flash, we don’t know if this will ultimately be a negative. Time will tell us.
The long Treasury continues to perform well, trading above its 100 and 200 day moving averages, within its short term trading range and it long term uptrend. It has made five higher lows and now three higher highs. Bond investors continue to bet on a weak economy and low inflation/rates.
Gold also had a good week, finishing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a very short term uptrend. However, note that (1) on Friday, it traded above the upper boundary of its short term trading range intraday, but failed to hold above it and (2) then closed below its prior high. While not terribly alarming, it does suggest GLD may have lost momentum.
The dollar’s chart remains ugly. UUP is solidly in a downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages. There is some good news, i.e. it held above the lower boundary of its short term trading range and made a higher low. That is not a lot for the dollar bulls to hang their hat on; but it is better than a sharp stick in the eye.
The VIX had another volatile week, closing up noticeably; that following another big up move in the preceding week. It finished above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the second day (if it ends there today, it will reset to a trading range). This pin action clearly provides substance to my open questions as to whether the VIX made or is making some kind of bottom extending back to late July and if I was premature resetting the intermediate term from trading range to downtrend.
The latest from Lord Rothschild (medium):
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Thoughts on ‘long term’ investing.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
The July Chicago national activity index was reported at -0.01 versus forecasts of 22.0
International War Against Radical Islam
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