Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Morning Call---Mergers help investor attitude

The Morning Call

10/25/16

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 18223, S&P 2151) had a good day.  Volume fell; breadth improved.  The VIX dropped 2%, closing below its 100 day moving average and in a short term downtrend---which remains supportive of stocks.  It also ended very near the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  A successful challenge of that lower boundary would an even larger plus for stocks. 

The Dow ended [a]  right on its 100 day moving average, now resistance;  [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term trading range {17092-18693}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11529-24374} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5541-19431}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now resistance; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term trading range {1995-2193}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {1966-2568} and [e] in a long term uptrend {862-2400}. 

The long Treasury declined, ending below its 100 day moving average and is developing a very short term downtrend.  However, it seems to have found support at a key Fibonacci level and, more importantly, remains in short, intermediate and long term uptrends.  I would characterize this chart as sound long term but in the midst of a big hiccup.

GLD fell finishing below its 100 day moving average (resistance), below its 200 day moving average for the second day (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance) and within a short term downtrend.  The only bright spot is that it continues to hold above a key Fibonacci level. 

Bottom line: yesterday’s penetration of its 100 day moving average by the S&P notwithstanding, the Averages remain at an inflection point---‘trading in a very tight range as investors stew over a number of fundamental issues that currently lack clarity.  I have no insight as to which way prices will break; but I think that stocks are at a point where the technical indicators will tell us how the aforementioned fundamental issues are getting resolved in investors’ minds.’

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The US economic dataflow started the week on a mixed note: the September Chicago national activity index was down but less than the August number, which itself was revised down; the October Markit flash manufacturing PMI was stronger than expected.

            Overseas, the stats were solidly positive: the October Markit EU manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were ahead on estimates; the Japanese October manufacturing PMI was above forecast though exports were a disappointment.

            Is global growth picking up? (short):

            Also in the headlines were the announcements of a number large mergers (Time Warner by ATT, B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, Genworth by China Oceanwide and Scottrade by TD Ameritrade).  That generally gets investors jiggy as it is interpreted to mean that companies believe that values still exist in the Market.  And to be fair, mergers are easy to execute when the cost of money is virtually nil and P/E’s are at all-time highs.  But that said, it is also part of problem of the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets, which is not a condition about which I get excited.

Bottom line: this week will be a busy one: lots of economic releases and the biggest week of this earnings season.  That may help provide clarity to at least one of the current murky fundamental issues (the trend in third quarter earnings reports, the direction of central bank monetary policy [which, if not already murky enough, is getting more so as inflation fears rise and, money supply shrinks], the economic consequences of a Brexit and an OPEC production cut). 

But as I said last week, ‘I have no idea which of these factors weigh the most heavily on investors’ minds or how to anticipate the news flow on each or what defines the degree of positive or negative surprise on each that would prompt action as a result.  The only way I am going to know is how the Market reacts to that news flow viz a viz support/resistance levels. As long as clarity is lacking, the Market is apt to churn directionlessly.’ 

If you haven’t already, take the opportunity to build your cash position by lightening up on your winners and selling your losers.
  
                   My thought for the day: This time is never different because there is nothing new on Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again, mostly due to human nature.

       Investing for Survival
   
                8 ways the rich view the world differently.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
            Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT): Q3 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of $9.16B (-16.4% Y/Y) misses by $680M

            3M (NYSE:MMM): Q3 EPS of $2.15 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $7.71B in-line (flat Y/Y)

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW): Q3 EPS of $4.23 misses by $0.10.
Revenue of $3.28B (+4.1% Y/Y) in-line

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): FQ1 EPS of $1.03 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $16.52B (-0.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

United Technologies (NYSE:UTX): Q3 EPS of $1.76 beats by $0.10.
Revenue of $14.35B (+4.1% Y/Y) beats by $80M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The October Markit flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.2 versus consensus of 51.2.

   Other

            More on inflation (short):
           
            Problems in the Italian banking system are still there (medium):

            Credit card delinquencies rise (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Is the US ungovernable? (medium and a must read):

Obamacare premiums to rise 25% in 2017 (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Freedom of speech in The Netherlands (medium):

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