Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

9/26/16

The Market

         

    Technical

            Price momentum remains to the upside.  The S&P is in uptrends across all timeframes and is well above its 100 day moving average.  Resistance currently exists at its last all-time high (2193).  If it successfully challenges that level, it is a long way to the next barrier---the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (2400).

            If TLT hadn’t voided a very short term uptrend, you would scarcely think that there would be a problem.  It is in uptrends across the short, intermediate and long terms; in addition, it unsuccessfully challenged its 100 day moving average and a key Fibonacci level.  For the moment, the direction for rates is down.

            GLD is above its 100 day moving average, after testing it early last week.  After voiding a short term uptrend, it bounced back above the lower boundary of that former trend and is now tracking it as it rises.  If GLD can break away from the gravity of that trend line, I will likely reinstate the short term uptrend.

            Clearly the VIX has been on a roller coaster ride the last two weeks.  Last week was the down phase.  Ending in a short term downtrend and below its 100 day moving average, suggests that the outlook for stocks is upbeat.  But note that it stopped right on then bounced off of the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  We will likely know soon whether this marked a fourth higher low (bad for stocks) or was just a dead cat bounce on its way to lower levels (good for stocks).

    Fundamental

            ***overnight, German business confidence rose to its highest level since May 2014; Merkel ruled out any state aid for Deutschebank.

            The Chinese banking problem is not going away (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-25/chinese-contagion-risks-surge-banks-have-never-been-more-reliant-each-other-funding

            Problem solving like a central banker (medium):       

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/everything-else-history-repeats-almost-exactly-because-power-truly-corrupts

       Investing for Survival

            Enemies of investment success.   

            http://vanguardblog.com/2016/09/21/enemies-of-investment-success/

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

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  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

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