Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

8/15/16

The Market

         

    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            Stocks clearly want to go higher.  They have lots of support from the moving averages as well the trend lines.  However, as I have noted repeatedly, volume has been low and breadth not so hot.  Plus there remains the nagging concern about volatility in bonds, gold, oil, the dollar and the VIX.

            The long Treasury tried to break out of its developing pennant formation on Friday---but failed.  The attempt was to the upside; and had it been successful, technicians would argue that there would be a further move higher---meaning lower interest rates and suggesting more economic weakness.  I await further developments.  In the meantime, TLT closed well over its 100 day moving average and in uptrends across all timeframes.

            GLD looks like it could be topping out.  It couldn’t get through a key Fibonacci level and negated its very short term uptrend.  That has me concerned about our GDX holding; I have a very short fuse.

            The VIX seems to have finally set its course; and it is down.  That is good news for stocks---at least short term.  However, it is not that far from the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  Given the difficulty the VIX had breaking its short term trend, then it could be even harder to reset the intermediate term trend to down.

    Fundamental

      

            ***overnight, Japanese second quarter GDP and corporate investment were below forecast.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-14/japan-q2-gdp-misses-unchanged-first-quarter-business-spending-exports-slide

            What Japanese QE hath wrought (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-14/bank-japan-will-be-top-shareholder-55-companies-end-2017

       Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of Aflac (AFL-$72) has risen above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range. Hence, it is being Removed from the Dividend Growth Buy List.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio never established a position in AFL.

       Investing for Survival

            Investment advisors goals are different from yours.   

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-even-the-best-investing-advice-may-be-wrong-2016-08-11

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The August NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at -4.21 versus expectations of +2.5.

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Empire-Manufacturing-Update

   Other

            Chinese hoarding cash (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-14/panic-china-hoarding-cash-fastest-pace-lehman

            Quote of the day (short):

            http://cafehayek.com/2016/08/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-129.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

Politics

  Domestic

Monday morning humor; update on global warming (medium):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/expert-says-rising-rapes-sweden-due-global-warming-not-soaring-muslim-immigation

  International War Against Radical Islam

            The Justice Department and the $400 million payment to Iran (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-12/justice-department-objected-obamas-400-million-iran-ransom-payment

            Islamic Islamophobia (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-15/islamic-islamophobia-when-muslims-are-not-muslim-enough-what-does-it-promise-rest-us

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