Friday, May 22, 2015

The Morning Call---Another week of lousy data

The Morning Call

5/22/15

The Market
           
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 18285, S&P 2130) did little yesterday---the Dow ending flat and the S&P up 5 points.  Both closed above their 100 day moving average; but again the Dow finished below its all-time high while the S&P remained above its comparable level. 

Longer term, the indices remained well within their uptrends across all timeframes: short term (17220-20020, 2021-3000), intermediate term (17365-22493, 1823-2591 and long term (5369-19175, 797-2138).  

Volume rose slightly; breadth was a little better.  The VIX fell 6%, closing below its 100 day moving average and the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend---both positives for stocks.  The further it drops, the more attractive it is as portfolio insurance.

The long Treasury was strong but still remained below its 100 day moving average, the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend and near the lower boundary of a short term downtrend.  I will also note that the charts of almost all the bond indices and ETF’s that I watch are just as sick as TLT.

GLD was down and finished below its 100 day moving average and the neck line of the head and shoulders pattern. 

Oil rose slightly but still closed below the upper boundary of its recent short term trading range; while the dollar was also up a tad, leaving it above the lower boundary of its recently broken short term uptrend.

Bottom line: yesterday’s pin action was a non-event; so my thoughts are the same:  ‘Their (the indices) pin action of the last couple of days could be interpreted in two ways: a consolidation before a challenge of the upper boundaries of their long term uptrend or the buyers blowing their wad trying unsuccessfully to break materially higher.  As I said yesterday, having come this far, I can’t believe that the indices won’t attempt an assault on the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.  On the other hand, I continue to believe they will be unable to successfully challenge to any meaningful extent.  So the risk/reward is not favorable on a technical basis.  I think that argues for caution.’

            The long Treasury continues to act poorly, which is not a surprise given the confusion over Fed policy as expressed in the FOMC minutes and the uncertainty over economic progress created by recent Fed bank statements.     

    Fundamental
   
       Headlines

            It was a huge day for US economic data.  Unfortunately, almost all of the numbers were disappointing: weekly jobless claims, the April Chicago Fed national activity index, the May Markit flash manufacturing index, the May Philadelphia and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indices and April existing home sales.  The one positive was the April leading economic indicators.  One, note that all except weekly jobless claims were second quarter stats; so any revisions in first quarter seasonal adjustments are not in play. Two, the lousy existing home sales are something of an offset to the prior reported new home sales (in fact, in order of magnitude they are about ten times larger).

Lance Roberts on housing (medium and a must read):

            The international economic data weren’t much better.  The May Markit composite PMI’s for the EU and China were disappointing.  Indeed, China’s number was the third decline in as many months.  The good news was that Japan’s comparable stat was upbeat.  That is the second good datapoint in a row for Japan, so its economy may have finally hit bottom.

            ***overnight, Bank of Japan keeps QEInfinity in place; April German business confidence fell; Draghi warns that QE can’t do it all and that fiscal reforms are essential to returning the EU to historical growth rates.

            While there were no news items on the Greek/Troika negotiations, that in itself was bad news since the timeline for a resolution is very short; and every day that goes by with no progress brings a default or Grexit closer to a reality.

            The latest on the Greek/Troika negotiations (medium):

            ***overnight, the Greek, French and German leaders met and adjourned with no agreement but said that ‘significant progress’ had been made.

Bottom line: after Tuesday’s positive new home sales and Wednesday’s San Francisco and New York Fed’s attempts to put some lipstick our economic pig, yesterday’s download of crappy data re-introduced us to reality.  Whatever the outcome of any first quarter economic data revisions, those numbers were an indication that the second quarter is going to be lousy---unless, of course, the bureaucrats just keep adjusting the seasonal adjustments to meet their dreamweaver forecasts. 

Speaking of dreamweavers, the Japanese reported a positive May PMI---which follows Wednesday’s improved GDP figure.  Like Europe, we can only hope that this is a sign of a better Japanese economy.  Restraining my enthusiasm is their government’s propensity to fudge the numbers to fit the forecast.   However, my cynicism at this point should be taken with a grain of salt.  In truth, there is nothing at present to cast doubt on the validity of these numbers


 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.

            Ready for a Market re-set? (medium):

            Earnings and the S&P (short):

                More on valuation (short):

       
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The May Markit flash manufacturing index came in at 53.8 versus expectations of 54.6.

            The May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 6.7 versus estimates of 8.0.

            The May Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -13 versus an anticipated drop on 2.

            April existing home sales fell 3.3% versus a flat consensus.

            April leading economic indicators rose 0.7% versus forecasts of up 0.3%.

            April CPI was reported at +0.1%, in line; ex food and energy, it was +0.3% versus expectations of +0.1%.

   Other

            Risk aversion is the problem (medium):

            Update on the state of student loans (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Soros on China and Europe (medium):








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