Investing for Survival: Monday Morning Chartology

Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

4/27/15

The Market

Technical

Monday Morning Chartology

The S&P appears to be headed for another challenge of the upper boundary of its long term uptrend. Friday it finished above the 100 day moving average and its prior lower high---potentially breaking that very short term downtrend. A close above it today would negate that trend. It is very near its all-time high and just a little further from the long term uptrend.

Judging strong and weak markets (short):

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2015/04/questioning-strong-and-weak-markets.html

Who is buying? (short):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-26/chart-day-who-buying

On Friday, the long Treasury regained its 100 day moving average as well as the lower boundary of that very short term trading range which was negated on Thursday. I will be watching to see whether the Wednesday/Thursday decline was an outlier or a sign of things to come. You can see how the lower boundary of its short term trading range and the lower boundary of its intermediate term up trend are converging. Taking those boundaries out would spell technical trouble; though following Thursday and Friday’s pin action, my concern has lessened a bit.

GLD’s head and shoulders formation continues to develop. A break below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range would set it up for a challenge of the lower boundary of its long term downtrend.

The VIX has clearly broken the lower boundary of the pennant formation, which should lead to more downside. However, the lower boundary of its short term trading range is not that far away nor is the lower boundary of its long term trading range (not seen in this chart but just below the short term boundary).