Wednesday, January 14, 2015

The Morning Call---Earnings season is not going so well

The Morning Call

1/14/15

The Market
           
    Technical

Speaking of a schizophrenic Market, yesterday witnessed its very definition with the Dow experiencing a 450 point intraday swing.  After the dust settled, the indices (DJIA 17613, S&P 2023) still closed within uptrends across all timeframes: short term (16387-19157, 1889-2251), intermediate term (16401-21570, 1729-2443) and long term (5369-18860, 783-2083); although they remained below their 50 day moving average. 

In addition, they bounced off both the upper boundary and the lower boundary of the developing pennant formation.  I have included the S&P chart.  Notice how closely the S&P intraday pin action almost exactly covered the entire gap between the aforementioned boundaries.  Also note that it traded above the high of the prior day and closed below the low of the prior day, which in technical lingo is an outside down day---a negative pattern.



            Volume was up slightly; breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose again, finishing above its 50 day moving average and within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend. 
           
            The long Treasury was unchanged on the day holding recent gains and ending the day within uptrends across all timeframes and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD fell but closed within its very short term uptrend, its short term trading range and slightly below the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.  As I noted yesterday a confirmed break of that upper boundary would likely mean that a bottom has been made.

Bottom line: yesterday morning it looked like the Averages were going to reclaim last Thursday’s highs bolstering the case for a positive first five days of January; then everything changed.  They bounced off the upper boundary of their pennant formations (1) failing to achieve last Thursday’s level and (2) made a second lower high in the pennant patterns.  Worse still they had an outside down day.  This all would suggest to me that stocks are in for additional downside.  Having said that, given the recent volatility, nothing would surprise me.

    Fundamental
   
            Yesterday’s US economic data was generally upbeat: the December small business optimism index was up nicely, weekly retail chain store sales rose and the US budget in December was in surplus though not quite as much as anticipated.

            Overseas, the data flow was very mixed:

(1)   Germany reported a balanced budget [leading investors to optimistically assume that this would make some EU QE more acceptable to them]; then later in the day announced that it wanted every country in the EU to balance its budget [leading to an extreme tightening of those same investors’ sphincter muscles],

(2)   China reported a better than forecast trade balance; then Tesla described its China business as weak,

***overnight, the ECJ advocate general ruled that EU QE was compatible with EU law; Russia announced a 10% budget cut, while the World Bank estimated its GDP would contract 2.9% in 2015; Abe announced his biggest budget ever but with less borrowing (thank you sales tax increase); and copper plunged to a 5 year low.

In addition, oil rallied early in the day, then plunged again.  Meanwhile, China reported that it had bought an additional five million barrels of oil in December, adding them to its strategic reserves---which begged the question, how much lower would oil prices have dropped without those purchases?

David Stockman on the ‘unmitigated positive’ of lower oil prices (medium):

            Back in the US, in another earnings related disappointment, KB Homes reported softening demand and cost price pressures.  Not a great combo, especially from within an industry sector from which investors have been expecting great things.

            Bottom line:  despite the positive economic data here and at least a dabbling of it from abroad, the news on key investment issues (EU QE, oil, earnings) was not so good.  Particularly discouraging is KB Homes the report which is more anecdotal evidence following Monday’s poor showing from Tiffany’s (consumer spending) and American Airlines (benefits of lower oil prices) that the trend in upbeat macroeconomic data maybe about to change.  Again, it would be foolish to be making predictions about this earnings season or the economy from just two days of earnings reports.  But, pay attention.

      Investing for Survival from the Sovereign Man

What follows is a continued personal perspective on some of the challenges facing today’s investor:
1. For many investors, capital preservation in real terms should be more important than capital growth in notional ones.
2. Investors – as humans – are typically loss-averse. We feel the emotional impact of equivalent gains and losses disproportionately. This does not mean we should avoid considered risks, but to invest dispassionately.
3. Investing dispassionately is difficult when most of the investment media comprise the participants in a 24/7 circus. If the business of investing is either entertaining or exciting, you’re doing it wrong.
4. The answer is obvious: turn off CNBC. (Judging by their viewing figures, plenty of investors already have.)
5. True diversification remains the last free lunch in finance.
6. Having fatally tainted monetary policy, the dismal science of economics has wrought damage across investment theory as well: ‘homo economicus’ does not actually exist, and markets will never be wholly efficient until all people are, too.
7. “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” (Benjamin Graham)
8. The general principles of investing are not arcane. They should begin with the avoidance of loss.
9. Starting valuation is the most important characteristic of any investment.
10. Risk is poorly defined as volatility. It is better defined as the possibility of a permanent loss of capital.
11. “Operations for profit should be based not on optimism but on arithmetic.” (Also Benjamin Graham)
12. Don’t buy poor quality investments pushed by sell-side interests; don’t overpay for quality investments.
13. The ‘equity / bond / property / cash’ paradigm struggles fundamentally in an environment where all of these asset classes appear overvalued.
14. Friends are unlikely to share their worst investment outcomes at the golf club.
15. Liquidity is overrated. For capital that can be safely committed to the longer term, it is irrelevant.
16. Private investors are often poorly served by the asset management industry.
17. The medical profession has the Hippocratic Oath: first, do no harm. The asset management profession lacks such an explicit expression of fiduciary commitment to its clients.
18. Private investors may, all things being equal, be better served by small, unlisted, private partnerships than by global, publicly listed, full service investment brands.
19. Rising compliance and regulatory pressure reduce variety in the asset management business. This is unlikely to be in the best interests of private investors.
20. When interest rates are close to all-time lows and the printing presses are running, the merits of ‘deep value,’ profitable, well-managed businesses are more than usually compelling – compared to just about any other asset or asset class.
21. Distrust anybody who claims to have all the answers. Especially today.

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The December small business optimism index came in at 100.4 versus expectations of 98.1.

            Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales were up 3.8%.

            The December US budget was in surplus by $1.9 billion versus estimates of plus $3 billion.

            Weekly mortgage applications soared 49.1% and purchase were up 24.0% (lower interest rates).

            December retail sales fell 0.9% versus forecasts of -0.1%; ex autos and gas, they declined 0.3% versus consensus of +0.6%.

   Other

            The golden age of the central banker has reached a cult stage (medium):

            Will low inflation delay the Fed’s rate hike? (medium):


Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam







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