Friday, October 3, 2014

The Morning Call---Draghi disappoints again

The Morning Call

10/3/14

I leave immediately to take care of some family business.  No Closing Bell.  See you Monday morning.

The Market
           
    Technical

            After another roller coaster day, the indices (DJIA 16801, S&P 1946) closed flat.  The Dow finished within its short (16332-17158) and intermediate (15132-17158) term trading ranges and a long term uptrend (5148-18484).  It is also is in a very short term downtrend and fell below its 50 day moving average.

The S&P finished below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (1965-2156) for a second day.  If it remains there through the close today, the short term trend will re-set to a trading range.  It remained within its intermediate term (1935-2735) uptrend, though it penetrated its lower boundary intraday and recovered.  It is possible that this is signaling that the 1935 will prove the low of the current decline.  Time will tell.  It is also within a long term uptrend (771-2020).  Finally, it finished below its 50 day moving average.

            Volume fell; breadth was mixed.  The VIX declined but remained within its very short term uptrend and above its 50 day moving average.  However, it is also still within short and intermediate term downtrends.

            The long Treasury was lower.  It finished within its very short term uptrend, its short and intermediate term trading ranges and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD was up fractionally but closed within its very short term, short term and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.
           
Bottom line: the Markets took a rest yesterday; though the S&P, the most important indicator at the moment, remained below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  On the other hand, it broke but couldn’t sustain the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend.  How this index trades near term should tell us a lot about Market direction (the sustainability of the current very short term downtrend).

Still as I noted yesterday, even if the S&P confirms the break of both the short and intermediate term uptrends, it will leave it in trading ranges; and if those ranges are similar to the DJIA ranges and they hold, then the downside risk, technically speaking, would be limited (2-4%). 
That said, confusion and schizophrenia now mark the pin action which I believe makes for a dangerous market to take any action save for the most skilled and nimble trader.  Our strategy remains:  ‘it is not too late to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.’ 

    Fundamental
    
       Headlines

            Not much US economic data yesterday: weekly jobless claims were somewhat disappointing and factory orders, while down huge, simply reflected a reversal of a large rise in aircraft orders the prior month.  Nothing here.

            Overseas, the big news was that the ECB left interest rates unchanged---which proves once again that Draghi’s ‘whatever is necessary’ line was just bullshit.  QE hasn’t worked, the Germans know it whether Draghi does or not and they are not going to acquiesce to bailing out southern sovereigns and their banks.

            The EU’s losing battle to recover (medium):

            ***overnight, EU Markit nonmanufacturing PMI’s were down across almost all countries.

Bottom line: investors spent the day mostly awaiting today’s nonfarm payroll number.  So its report should set the tone for the Market, at least in the very short term.  Long term, investors are still faced with, what in my opinion is, an untenable investment equation: deteriorating fundamentals and overvalued assets. 

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            The latest from Gary Shilling (medium):

            More on valuation (short):

      Thoughts on Investing from Ned Davis

If you want to know if it’s worth your time to spend an hour with this legendary technician, consider what Ned calls the four basic traits of successful investors:
1. They look at objective indicators. Removing the emotions from the investing process, they focus on data instead of reacting to events;
2. They are Disciplined:  The data drives decision making with pre-established rules. External factors do not influence them;
3. They have Flexibility:  The best investors are open-minded to new ideas, or revisiting previous thoughts;
4. They are Risk adverse: Not always obvious to investors, it is a crucial part of successful investing.

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
  
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            August factory orders fell 10.1% versus expectations of a 9.3% decline.  Recall that July orders soared 10.5% on a surge in transportation (aircraft) orders.  Hence, the August reading isn’t nearly as bad as it appears on the surface.

            September nonfarm payrolls rose 248,000 versus estimates of 215,000; the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% versus forecasts of 6.1%; plus July and August numbers were revised up.

   Other

            For the optimists (short):

            IMF suddenly discovers disconnect between the global economy and the global markets (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Europe’s coming collapse (medium):







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