Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert--The economic numbers need to improve

The Morning Call

9/23/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 17172, S&P 1994) has a rough day.  The Dow did manage to close above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (17158) for the requisite time period---though not by much.  I am going to re-set the short term trend to up (16608-19000).   It must close above 17158 today to re-set the intermediate term trend to up.  However, if today, DJIA has another day like Monday and finishes well below 17158, I will crawfish on the short term call and leave it as a trading range.  The Dow is still above its 50 day moving average.

            The S&P remained in uptrends across all time frames: short term (1955-2146), intermediate term (1922-2722) and long term (771-20200.

            Volume was below last Thursday’s (Friday quadruple expiration doesn’t count); breadth continued to deteriorate.  The VIX spiked 13% and ended above its 50 day moving average; however, it remains within short and intermediate term downtrends.

            The long Treasury was up fractionally; so the initial pounding it took following the FOMC meeting seems stalled at the least.  It finished within short and intermediate term trading ranges and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD (116.50) can’t catch a break.  It was off again, closing within short and intermediate term downtrends, below its 50 day moving average and near the lower boundary of its long term trading range (114.40).

Bottom line: despite yesterday’s sell off the Dow still finished above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend for the time stipulated by our time and distance discipline.  Hence, I re-set the short term trend to up; although if the DJIA mirrors Monday’s performance today, I will return the short term trend to a trading range. 

I will observe again that following the post-FOMC dichotomy of stocks up (easier Fed) and bonds down (tighter Fed) performance, the trade has reversed in the last two trading days, i.e. stocks down, bonds up. 

I am no less confused than I was on Saturday---although stocks down and bonds up fit with my number one risk scenario---global economic slowdown/recession.  However, as I noted, it is too soon to make any changes in our forecast.

Our strategy remains to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.
           
            From a long time bull (short):

    Fundamental
 
       Headlines

            US economic data was not good: the August Chicago National Activity Index registered a negative reading versus estimates of a positive one; further August existing home sales fell versus expectations of a slight rise.  That doesn’t inspire confidence after the disappointing industrial production and housing starts stats last week. 

            Not helping matters was a host of lousy developments overseas: ‘(1) Japan announced that it intended to go ahead with the second step of raising its consumption tax [which re-begs the question, what are these guys thinking about?], the Bank of China stated there would be no more monetary easing [remember, they lie a lot], (3) the ECB said it may not do anymore easing, given that its first try was a bust, and (4) the global leading economic indicator just did a triple back flip with a two and one half twists in the pike position.’

            More problems for China (medium):

            More problems from a continually weakening yen (medium):

            ***overnight, September European PMI’s were down, again; however, the Chinese PMI rose.

                As I noted above, it is too soon to start wringing our hands; but the longer this string of poor numbers goes on, the closer we get.

Bottom line: the negative economic data from around the global continues unabated.  As you know, I think this is now the major threat to our own progress.  Unfortunately, whether coincidentally or not, the US has hit its own rough patch in the stats defining its recovery.  For the moment, I am not going to blow this into a dire scenario.  Although some upbeat economic news would certainly ease my concerns.  We still need at least another two to three more weeks of convincing (poor) data before I alter out forecast.  But the yellow light is flashing.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            The latest from John Mauldin (a bit long but a must read):

       Subscriber Alert

            I will take luck over skill any day.  Yesterday, Sigma Aldrich (SIAL) received an offer from Merck (Germany) and the stock popped about 33%.  That is a gift.  At the Market open this morning, the Dividend and Aggressive Growth Portfolios will Sell their positions.

       Investing for Survival

            Stay humble and grow wealthy (medium):

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