The Morning Call
9/15/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
Even
though the S&P had a rough week, uptrends remain well in tact across all timeframes. So there is no reason to question the current
uptrend. Further, the Market is in
oversold territory; hence a rally is a reasonable expectation. On the other hand, the FOMC meeting as well
as the Scottish vote on independence occur this week. Their outcome will likely heavily influence
this week’s pin action.
The
long Treasury confirmed the break below the lower boundary of its short term
uptrend. It will re-set to a trading
range. We now wait until we get a bounce
to set the actual lower boundary---I have drawn in two potential candidates
(brown lines). TLT also broke below its
50 day moving average. It remains within
an intermediate term trading range.
GLD
finished below the lower boundary of its short term trading range on
Friday. If it remains there through the
close on Tuesday, the short term trend will re-set to down. It ended within its intermediate term downtrend
and below its 50 day moving average.
Both GLD and TLT seem to be telling us that interest rates are going up.
The
VIX continues to be of very little help in assessing Market direction.
The
value of sentiment indicators (short):
Fundamental
Investing for Survival
Sometimes
the smartest thing to do is nothing:
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
September New York Fed manufacturing index was reported at 27.54 versus
expectations of 15.9.
Other
The
latest on Chinese shadow banking losses (medium):
Why
the price of oil is dropping (short):
Italian
and Spanish government debt hit record highs (short):
The
problem with Abenomics (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
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