Thursday, August 21, 2014

The Morning Call--Why did the more hawkish FOMC minutes spawn a stock rally?

The Morning Call

8/21/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16979, S&P 1986) had another good day.  The Dow remained within its short (16331-17158) and intermediate term (15132-17158) trading ranges but is clearly drawing ever closer to the upper boundaries of those ranges.  It also finished above its 50 day moving average and within a long term uptrend (5101-18464).

            The S&P also closed near the top end of its short term trading range (1814-1991).  It also remained within its intermediate (1881-2681) and long term (752-1999) uptrends and above its 50 day moving average.

            Volume again declined.  Surprisingly, breadth remained mixed.  The VIX, not surprisingly, fell, finishing within short and intermediate term downtrends and below its 50 day moving average.

            The long Treasury dropped again; but remained within its short term uptrend, above its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term trading range.

            GLD continued its dismal performance, closing within a short term trading range, an intermediate term downtrend, a developing pennant formation and below its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line: the indices seem poised to bust through their former all-time highs and re-set short and intermediate term trends to the upside.  Adding credence to that assessment, I thought that the more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes would have put a crimp in investors’ enthusiasm.  Not so.  Furthermore, the Market is way overbought; but investor euphoria reigns supreme.  So it seems likely that prices will push through those former highs (17158, 1991) today or after the Yellen speech.  Nonetheless, I remain of the belief that the Averages will be unable to confirm a breach above the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.

Our strategy remains to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

            The latest from Stock Traders’ Almanac on bull markets and corrections (short and a must read):

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            There was not much by way of economic data releases yesterday.  Weekly mortgage applications were up, but the more important purchase applications were down.  These numbers have little meaning following Tuesday’s terrific housing starts report.

            Overseas, Japan reported that its July trade deficit widened yet again.  I am not sure how long the Japanese electorate will put up with the failed policies of their government; but at some point, there has to be either a turnaround or a movement to correct those policies.  In the meantime, it is not great news for US companies with exposure to Japan.

            ***overnight.  Speaking of a turnaround, the Japanese July PMI surged to a five month high.  However, that was offset by a lousy Chinese PMI.

            Of course, the high point of the day was the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting which I would characterize as more hawkish than the statement immediately following that meeting.  The primary reason seems to be that the improvement in the labor markets has an increasing number of Fed members wanting to start to raise interest rates sooner than previously implied.

            Summary of FOMC minutes

            Fed mouthpiece, Hilsenrath’s take (medium):

            What is important about Jackson Hole (medium)?

Bottom line: as I noted above, I was surprised that the more hawkish tone to the Fed minutes didn’t cause more heartburn for investors than it did.  Perhaps it is what I suggested yesterday, i.e. that investors have unbridled faith that the Fed will get its policy right irrespective of the rate of progress of the economy---hence any policy move will be the correct one. 

‘As you know, my mantra on this issue is that if this assumption proves correct, it will be the first time in history.  Not that it won’t; but there sufficient evidence to warrant healthy skepticism.

Or as Citi suggests, perhaps investors believe that Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech will be uber dovish and negate the impact of the FOMC minutes.

There is nothing for me to do but wait and see; and given the current lofty equity valuations, I believe cash is of inestimable worth while I do.’

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
 
            Does it matter is stocks are currently not is a 2000 type bubble? (medium):

            Another thought on current valuation (medium):

            CAPE and math (medium and a good read):

      Investing for Survival from Warren Buffett


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