Tuesday, August 19, 2014

The Morning Call--It is all about the Fed

The Morning Call

8/19/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The recovery continued, though the technical damage has not been completely undone.  The DJIA (16838) closed above the lower boundaries of its former short term and intermediate term uptrends; but I leave them in trading ranges (16331-17158, 15132-17158).  It remained below its 50 day moving average.

            The S&P (1971) finished within a short term trading range (1814-1991), an intermediate term uptrend (1881-1681) and above its 50 day moving average.  The Averages remain out of sync in their intermediate term trends and their 50 day moving averages.

            Volume fell; breadth improved.  The VIX declined ending below the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend, below its 50 day moving average and within short and intermediate term downtrends---all bullish signs for stocks.

            The long Treasury dropped but remained well within its short term uptrend, above its 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term trading range.  The debate continues as to whether TLT is being driven by fears of a recession or fears of a major geopolitical flare up.  Whichever it is, bonds are reflecting a different scenario than stocks---which suggests more caution than is being exercised by equity investors.

            And, what are bonds telling us?  (medium):

            GLD fell, closing within a short term trading range, below its 50 day moving average, within its intermediate term downtrend and continues building a pennant formation.

Bottom line: the indices have had a nice bounce off the recent low; however, technically, they are not out of the woods as they remain out of sync on a couple of measures.  No doubt the ‘buy the dippers’ have come back in force and that likely portends the resumption of upward momentum.  But our Discipline is to force the Market to prove that it can re-establish its uptrends.

Our strategy remains to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

            Andrew Thrasher’s latest analysis (medium):

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            It was a slow news day.  In the US, the only economic data was an upbeat report on the NAHB housing index---a secondary indicator which taken by itself means little (***but appears to be reflecting better housing starts; see below).

            Overseas, (1) the ECB said that it expects EU banks to borrow E250 billion from it under its targeted long term financing operation.  That is a positive in the sense that it provides some additional liquidity for the banks; but it doesn’t solve their long term problems of being overleveraged with too many investments of questionable quality.

            (2) Russia threatened to ban vehicle imports---the operative word being ‘threatened’.  But as the day progressed, rumors sprung up that Kiev and Moscow were talking [negotiating].  While investors got jiggy with it, I remain of the opinion that Putin will settle this standoff, when he gets what he wants---and not before.  So I think the news would be more accurately reflected in saying Russia is telling Ukraine the conditions on which it will cease stirring the pot.  How this all works out, I haven’t a clue; but the sources of my concern [assuming WWIII is avoided] remain [a] Obama pushes His luck and is forced to blink, undermining investor confidence, and [b] Russia cuts off the gas to Europe, pushing it into a deeper recession than already may be occurring.

            The others item on investor radar is the release this week of the most recent FOMC minutes and the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole starting Wednesday---raising hopes for more Fed mewing about the economy, an accommodative monetary policy and the lack of reasons to raise interest rates.

Bottom line: clearly, the buyers are back.  No one knows how much fire power they still have left. 

‘But I do know that based on many measures of valuation including our own, stocks are overvalued.  When that realization comes is not in my control.  What is in my control is insuring that our Portfolios are well positioned whenever it occurs.  And that is what I have done.  Remember that I am not predicting economic malaise; I am predicting that a Fed induced mispricing of assets will end.’

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
  
            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            The latest from Robert Shiller (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Geopolitical turmoil and stocks (medium):

            More on valuation (medium):

     

No comments:

Post a Comment