Thursday, August 7, 2014

The Morning Call--The EU economy continues to deteriorate

The Morning Call

8/7/14

We leave bright and early tomorrow morning for the beach.  Gone until 8/17.  As usual, I will have my computer with me and if the need arises will be in touch via Subscriber Alerts.

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16413, S&P 1920) marked time yesterday.  Both are below their 50 day moving average (the Dow is near its 200 day moving average), both are in short term trading ranges (16331/16009-17158, 1814-1991) (I am calling the break of the S&P short term uptrend) and both are within their long term uptrends (5101-18464, 772-1999).  However, they are out of sync in their intermediate term trends---the DJIA being in trading range (15132-17158) and the S&P remaining within its uptrend (1865-2665).  As a reminder under our Price Discipline, when the Averages are out of sync, the Market is considered to be directionless.
           
            Volume rose slightly; breadth recovered.  The VIX declined, finishing above its 50 day moving average, within a very short term uptrend and short and intermediate term downtrends.  Until the VIX starts breaking trend lines, I don’t think that the upward momentum of stock prices is subject to reversal.

                The long Treasury moved higher, closing above its 50 day moving average and within a short term uptrend and intermediate term trading range.

            GLD surged.  It is back above its 50 day moving average and the upper boundary of what had been a developing short term downtrend.  It remains within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line: the short term trends of the indices have re-set to a trading range.  By itself, this is not an unusual occurrence in a bull market.  However, (1) they both have broken below their 50 day moving averages and the Dow is near its 200 day moving average and (2) they are out of sync on their intermediate term trends---the Dow re-setting to a trading range, the S&P remaining within its uptrend.   Even this doesn’t necessarily portend much lower prices. 

On the other hand, given that Market peaks are generally processes versus a sudden change of direction, this pin action fits within the definition of a ‘process’.  In addition, the ‘buy the dippers’ seem to have lost some of their enthusiasm---even in a very oversold market.  To be sure, they have twice managed to stem losses following big down days; and given yesterday’s bad news out of Europe, they held the Market to a flat performance.  But that’s it and, as yet they have been unable to manage any follow through.  Net, net, the jury is out as to whether we are witnessing a topping process or simply a much needed hiccup in an otherwise strong market.

So it is too early to be making a Buy List but not too late to Sell stocks that are near or at their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

            Update on the retail investor (short):

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic data consisted of two secondary indicators which were mixed: weekly mortgage applications were up but purchase applications were down and the June US trade deficit was less than expected.

            Overseas, the numbers weren’t so good and became the center of investor focus on the day: Italian second quarter GDP fell which technically puts Italy back in recession and German factory orders plunged 4.3%.  Clearly, both leave open the question of a downturn in the entire EU economy---which would not be good for either the US corporate earnings or the continent’s overly indebted sovereigns or overly leveraged banks.  

            ***overnight the ECB left interest rates unchanged---somewhat surprising in light of the recent lousy economic data out of the EU: German industrial production was well under expectations.

Bottom line: buyers, having been on something of a strike of late, acquitted themselves well yesterday---holding stocks flat in the face of bad economic news.  Nevertheless, they have clearly backed off of their two year long propensity to ‘buy the dips’ on reflex. 

I have no way of knowing what investor psychology will be today or tomorrow.  But I do know that based on many measures of valuation including our own, stocks are overvalued.  When that realization comes is not in my control.  What is in my control is insuring that our Portfolios are well positioned whenever it occurs.  And that is what I have done.  Remember that I am not predicting economic malaise; I am predicting that a Fed induced mispricing of assets will end.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.


            The latest from Doug Kass (medium and today’s must read):


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