Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

7/21/14

The Market

           

    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            You would hardly have known that the geopolitical events of last Thursday occurred.  The S&P is above its 50 day moving average and within uptrends across all timeframes.  Volume on Friday rose---but it was options expirations; and breadth made a dramatic recovery.

            The long Treasury fell on Friday, closing slightly below the upper boundary of its short term trading range---negating Thursday’s break above that resistance level.  Nonetheless, it is above is 50 day moving average and within an intermediate term trading range.                                 

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/high-yield-bonds-are-flashing-red-again

            GLD bounced neatly off its 50 day moving average last week---that is the best thing one could say about its recent pin action.  It remains in a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

            http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/92054293418/cherry-picking

      

      The VIX soared through the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend on Thursday.  Friday, it retreated but not enough to push back below that very short term boundary; and for a very short term trend that would be enough to negate it.  However, given the unusual geopolitical circumstances, I am going to wait a day or so before confirming the break.

    Fundamental

 

            Update on the misery index (short):

            http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/07/less-misery-in-misery-index-excerpt.html

            This season’s revenue and earnings ‘beat’ rate---to date (short):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/7/18/earnings-and-revenue-beat-rates.html

  

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index was reported at .12 versus expectations of .16.

   Other

            Dallas Fed Chief Fisher on monetary policy (a bit long but today’s must read):

            http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2014/fs140716.cfm

            Scotiabank on Yellen (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/janet-pump-and-regulate-baby-yellens-acting-skills

            How the Chinese economy keeps recovering (medium):

            http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/07/how-does-the-chinese-economy-keep-recovering-each-time.html

            Update on the Economic Trend and Momentum Indices (medium):

            http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-profile-7-18-14/#more-3823

            The latest on Espirito Santo (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/holding-company-portugals-2nd-largest-bank-just-filed-bankruptcy-protection

            Goldman on Abenomics (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/goldman-slams-abenomics-questions-validity-bojs-target

            Consensus global GDP (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/world-gdp-hopes-are-collapsing

            Money printing is not bringing prosperity to Main Street---the latest from David

Stockman (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-20/three-charts-week-money-printing-not-bringing-prosperity-main-street

            The subprime auto loan market keeps getting worse (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-20/buying-car-was-worst-decision-i-ever-made-subprime-auto-loan-bubble-bursts

Politics

  Domestic

More exemptions from Obamacare (short):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-20/white-house-quietly-exempts-45-million-people-5-territories-obamacare

  International

            Latest from Ukraine (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/final-moments-flight-mh-17-russian-side-story

                http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/ukraines-security-service-has-confiscated-air-traffic-control-recordings-malaysian-j

            Putin’s retaliation against sanctions (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/russian-sanctions-retaliation-escalates-dumps-intelamd-and-now-foreign-cars

                        Congressmen urge release of 9/11 documents showing Saudi involvement (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-20/i-was-absolutely-shocked-what-i-read-congressman-calls-release-secret-911-documents