Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The Morning Call---Putin appears (operative word) to back off

The Morning Call

3/4/14
The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16167, S&P 1845) had a rough day.  The S&P was pushed back below the upper boundary of its short term trading range (all time high), which under our time and distance discipline negates last Thursday’s break and leaves the S&P in a short term trading range (1746-1848).  It remains within an intermediate term uptrend (1724-2504).

            The Dow finished within short (15330-16601) and intermediate (14696-16601) term trading ranges.  Both of the Averages are within long term uptrends (5050-17400, 736-1910).

            Volume fell; breadth deteriorated.  The VIX jumped 14%, closing within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD spiked, leaving it within a very short term uptrend, short and intermediate term downtrends and above its 50 day moving average.

Bottom line:  even though yesterday represents the fourth failure of the S&P to successfully challenge its all-time high, it likely doesn’t means ‘look out below’---primarily because the driving force for the pin action was the political situation in the Ukraine and, barring some colossally stupid move by the US, I don’t see this situation ultimately leading to a significant economic/political negative.  Hence, it seems reasonable to me that the bulls will gather their wits and make another assault on the highs.

That said, the divergences I keep harping on remain, so I think that the going to the upside will be laborious if indeed it proves successful.

Meanwhile, there is really not much to do save using any price strength that pushes one of our stocks into its Sell Half Range and to act accordingly.

Another good investing lesson from Todd Harrison (short):

            This data is very similar to our internal indicator (short):
              
    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday was a god send for the economic optimists---lots of data and almost all of it positive: January personal income and spending were up, the February Market PMI was strong, the February ISM manufacturing index rose, January construction rose versus an expected decline and light vehicle sales were flat.  Clearly, those of us who are either not in the recession camp or are hoping that the weather will ultimately account for much of the recent economic weakness, can take heart.  It certainly makes NOT altering my forecast easier.

            That said, how this new data plays out among the bulls is a question.  Will good (economic) news be bad (Fed) news (tightening)?  Or will the goldilocks scenario (the economy and the Fed will live in harmony forever) prevail?   I have no clue.

            Overseas, the economic data was not so hot: the Chinese manufacturing PMI was down, though the service PMI was up.  Across the pond, the EU PMI fell.  None of this does anything to lessen the international economic risks.

            Of course, yesterday’s dominating event was the political/military situation in Ukraine.  It is clear that Russia has control of the Crimea.  Beyond that, all we have is hyped statements from Ukraine, Russia and the US with little clarity.  I believe that it is reasonable to assume that (1) Russia will not let Ukraine move out of its sphere of influence without a struggle.  (Remember Putin’s signature statement that the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the 20th century) and (2) there is little that the EU or the US can do about it, save lose a faceoff.  In short, I view this as a temporary hiccup with little lasting significance---with the caveat that the US doesn’t do something really stupid that provokes a Russian response for which there is no sane counter.

            ***overnight, Putin appears to have back off a bit, returning troops to their bases.

Bottom line: the S&P’s pin action yesterday negated the recent break, although the driving force of the selloff (political/military situation in Ukraine) is not apt to be either permanent or economically negative (with a caveat). To me, the more important question is, how investors will interpret yesterday’s very upbeat economic news viz a viz Fed policy, especially if the general flow becomes more mixed/positive?  I have long since lost any appreciation of or empathy with the Market’s reasoning on Fed policy, so I don’t trust myself to answer the question.  But I do think that the answer will be a determinate of Market direction in the near future.  So I remain on the sidelines, skeptical of equity valuations, unimpressed by the current risk/reward offered by the Market and watchful of any price moves that would take one of our holdings into its Sell Half Range.

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.

            It is a cautionary note not to chase a rally if it occurs.

            Price compression (medium and a must read):

            Warren Buffett’s investment advice to his wife (medium):

            Munis regain popularity (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):


           What next in the US bond market (short)?

            And the European bond market (short):
            http://blog.yardeni.com/






Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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