Tuesday, January 7, 2014

The Morning Call---Will the January effect have an effect?

The Morning Call

1/7/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16245, S&P 1826) continue to consolidate from an over bought position, finishing within all major uptrends: short term (15663-20663, 1773-1926), intermediate term (15663-20633, 1673-2254) and long term (5050-17400, 728-1900).  Yesterday’s pin action puts the Averages down for the first three trading days of January.

            More on the January barometer (short):

            And:

            Volume was low---as it has been for the last two weeks; breadth was mixed.  The VIX fell, leaving it within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend,

            The long Treasury was up, closing within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.  It continues to build a head and shoulders formation---the neckline being the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

            GLD was up, finishing within its short and intermediate term downtrends, but above the lower boundary of its very short term downtrend.  The latter is a mild positive especially after GLD bouncing off a very well defined double bottom.  I need more strength to the upside before beginning to re-establish this position.

Bottom line:  the Averages didn’t make it to the upper boundaries of their long term uptrend during 2013’s seasonally positive Holiday trading.  Certainly, they still could, although the first three trading days of the new year are not auguring well for such a prospect (January effect). 

On the other hand, (1) stocks were very overbought at year’s ends, so a sell off was not unexpected,  (2) they are in an uptrend and will be unitl they are not, (3) statistically, stocks tend to trend higher in a year following an up +25% year [like 2013] and (4) over the last two years, most of the negative technical signals [outside down days] and axioms [sell in May and go away] haven’t worked.  So technically speaking, there are a number of arguments for ignoring the January effect, assuming the first five trading days are negative.

In any case I will continue to use any advance as an opportunity for our Portfolios to take advantage of our Sell Price Discipline.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Mixed economic news yesterday.  In the US, November factory orders were better than forecast while the December ISM nonmanufacturing index was disappointing.  Overseas, the Chinese service PMI was down to 50.9 from a prior reading of 52.5 while the EU PMI was up to 52.1 from 51.7.

George Soros on China (medium):

            On the political front, Janet Yellen was approved as the new Fed chief.

            So nothing earth shattering that would have a Market impact.

Bottom line: while the Holidays diverted investor attention from the uncertainties of Fed policy, their focus should sharpen on the 2014 Fed issues: (1) will it prove effective in unwinding QE without causing economic disruptions?  (2) will it even matter to the Markets if current overvaluations persist or get more extreme?  I await the answers.

That said, I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Latest data on stock allocation of individual’s (short):

            Outlook for the global bond markets in 2014 (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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