Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The Morning Call--We should have all taken the day off

The Morning Call

11/12/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (15783, S&P 1771) slept though the Veteran’s Day Holiday---both  inching a bit higher and remaining within uptrends across all time frames: short term (15239-20239, 1711-1865), intermediate term (15239-20239, 1624-2206) and long term (5015-17000, 728-1850).

            Volume, not surprisingly, was nonexistent; breadth was mixed.  The VIX closed within but near the lower boundary of its short term trading range and within its intermediate term down trend.

            The bond market was closed.

            GLD was down fractionally, finishing right on the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend but well within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

Bottom line:  all trends of both indices are up, though, the number of divergences continues to grow. And that is worrisome.  On the other hand, I believe it likely that the Averages will take a run at the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends (17000/1850).  If the risk is Fair Value (11575/1436), then the risk reward from current levels is not all the attractive. 

A trader still might want to play for another leg up but I would do so only if tight stops are used.  As a longer term investor, I think that the aforementioned risk/reward ratio is an invitation to lose money.  I would, however, take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

In the meantime, if one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

            Chart of the day (short):

            Corporations are now net sellers of stock (medium):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            With the government, bond market and other segments of the economy shutdown yesterday, there was little news flow.  The only datapoint worth mentioning is Chinese CPI which was higher than expected though PPI was quite tame.

Bottom line: the assumptions in our Economic and Valuation Models remain on track.  That means that I remain confident in the Fair Values generated by our Valuation Model; hence, stocks are overvalued. 

In other words, economic progress is being made; the issue is what you pay for it and our Valuation Model is suggesting rather strongly that investors are paying Cadillac prices for Chevy. 

            More on valuation (medium):

            Todd Harrison on the Market (medium):

            The latest from Mohamed El Erian (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Confessions of a former Fed official (medium and today’s must read):





Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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