Saturday, November 2, 2013

The Closing Bell--11/2/13

The Closing Bell

11/2/13

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast

           
            2013

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product:                        +1.0-+2.0
                        Inflation (revised):                                                              1.5-2.5
Growth in Corporate Profits:                                              0-7%

            2014 estimates

                        Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                       +1.5-+2.5
                        Inflation (revised)                                                             1.5-2.5
                        Corporate Profits                                                              5-10%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                               15198-20198
Intermediate Uptrend                              15198-20198
Long Term Trading Range                       5015-17000
                                               
                        2013    Year End Fair Value                                     11590-11610

          2014    Year End Fair Value                                     11800-12000                                          

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                          1701-1855
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                       1617-2199 
                                    Long Term Trading Range                         728-1850
                                                           
                        2013    Year End Fair Value                                      1430-1450

                        2014   Year End Fair Value                                       1470-1490         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                              43%
            High Yield Portfolio                                        46%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                           43%

Economics/Politics
           
The economy is a modest positive for Your Money.   The data this week came in mixed to positive: positives---weekly mortgage and purchase applications, the Case Shiller home price index, September industrial production and capacity utilization, Chicago PMI, October ISM manufacturing index, August business inventories and sales and September PPI and CPI; negatives---September pending home sales, consumer confidence, the October Markit PMI, the October ADP private payroll report and the October Dallas Fed business activity index; neutral---weekly retail sales, weekly jobless claims, October light vehicle sales and the FOMC policy statement. 

I was particularly encouraged by the industrial production and ISM manufacturing stats though, unfortunately, they were off by the consumer confidence number---that because I am concerned that it will manifest itself in lower consumer spending.  Still as a whole, the data continue to support our forecast:

a below average secular rate of recovery resulting from too much government spending, too much government debt to service, too much government regulation, a financial system with an impaired balance sheet. and a business community unwilling to hire and invest because the aforementioned along with...... the historic inability of the Fed to properly time the reversal of a vastly over expansive  monetary policy.
                       
            Update on big four economic indicators (short):

                And:

        The pluses:

(1)   our improving energy picture.  The US is awash in cheap, clean burning natural gas.... In addition to making home heating more affordable, low cost, abundant energy serves to draw those manufacturers back to the US who are facing rising foreign labor costs and relying on energy resources that carry negative political risks.

(2) the sequester.    while something of a meat axe approach to spending reductions, the sequester is the only thing standing in the way of more government spending---and for that I am grateful.  It is also the one piece of leverage that the conservatives have to maintain at least some semblance of fiscal responsibility in the upcoming budget debate.  Let’s hope they use it wisely.

That said I remind you that the CBO estimates that the budget deficit starts expanding again in the 2015 fiscal year; much of it a result of Obamacare.  So the sequester is not a long term solution to profligate spending.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Another week of multiple suits/ investigations for multiple offenses against multiple banks: 

[a] emails from the Rabobank libor rate manipulation case:

[b] UBS being investigated for currency rigging:

[c]  Bank of America for mortgage fraud:

[d] Barclay’s for currency manipulation:

[e]  Japanese banks for lending to the mob:

[f] RBS to create ‘bad bank’ to deal with toxic asset problem:

‘My concern here.....that: [a] investors ultimately lose confidence in our financial institutions and refuse to invest in America and [b] the recent scandals are simply signs that our banks are not as sound and well managed as we have been led to believe and, hence, are highly vulnerable to future shocks, particularly a collapse of the EU financial system.’
     
And this:

(2) fiscal policy.  the budget debate will begin again shortly.  As I noted above, my focus will be on how the GOP handles the negotiations surrounding the sequester.  I believe that it is critical that they hang on to this bit of leverage for dear life.  I have no problem with swapping increased spending in some areas for comparable reductions in others; but I will be apoplectic if the GOP allows the dems to hornswaggle them into a net increase in spending---as has happened far too often in the past.

Another issue around fiscal policy that needs watching is whether or not the recent budget/debt ceiling circus and the prospect for another in early 2014 have done enough damage to business and consumer confidence to have a material impact on the economy.  As noted above, consumer confidence took a beating this month.  The question now is, does that result in lower consumer spending [i.e. slow overall economic activity]?

Finally, I have said nothing about the fiscal consequences of the implementation of Obamacare, though we are starting to get the picture that it will cost far more than has been estimated.  So far, this thing has been a nightmare.  I am not saying that the administration won’t get the problems fixed and that we all live happily ever after.  Right now that doesn’t seem the likely scenario; so we have to start accounting for the potential of an additional drag on economic activity---or maybe a revolution.
                           
                       

(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets. 

Several things bear watching with respect to monetary policy:

[a] the statement released from the FOMC meeting this week was slightly more upbeat on the economy than its predecessors and therefore suggested a quicker ending of QE than investors previously thought.  Market’s weren’t particularly happy; though they recovered quickly. 

Nevertheless, it is clear that investors are worried about when tapering is going to happen and that they are very sensitive to any comment or lack thereof from the Fed on the subject.  The question in my mind, is how long they will stand by patiently while the Fed pumps up its balance sheet and vacillates publicly about how and when to transition from easy to tight money? 

Clearly, I can’t answer that.  But I know that if the Markets decide that they are sick and tired of watching the Fed bungle monetary policy and/or decide the risk of owning long duration assets is greater than owning cash, they have to power to take matters into their own hands, i.e. start demanding higher interest rates for the risk that they are assuming.  If that happens and the Fed loses control of the interest rate curve, there are consequences for both economic activity and all asset class prices.

[b] as I noted last week, there are other central banks out there that have also had their money spigots open---the two obvious being China and Japan.  If one or both of these countries decide to tighten their monetary policies, then the spill over effect into US securities markets is apt to be very quick.  And as with [a], the Fed’s policy control mechanism could be rendered useless.

The point here is that [a] it doesn’t matter which {major} central bank begins the process, once interest rates start jumping in one sector of the global economy, it will likely spread very rapidly and [b] it doesn’t change the risks of a  botched  transition from easy to tight money.  Indeed, they are likely increased since whatever the Fed’s exit strategy is, they will lose control of its execution.



            

(4)   a blow up in the Middle East.  Up until Thursday night, all had been quiet on the Middle East front save for the revelations on 60 Minutes and other media outlets that the Benghazi affair was a colossal State Department f**kup.  But that is more likely to have domestic rather than international political repercussions.

Thursday evening, Israeli air strikes destroyed Russian missiles intended for Hezbollah near a Russian naval base.  We await a Russian response.  As you know I have been concerned about two potential problems, one of them being that the US, having abandoned and betrayed the Israeli’s and Saudi’s, one or both of them could take matters into their own hands. 

To be sure the Israeli’s have never let US objections stand in the way of what they perceive to be an existential threat; although it seems reasonable to me that the US could influence exactly where that existential threat boundary was drawn.   Having lost that leverage, it seems to me the odds of events getting out of control have risen.

(5)   finally, the sovereign and bank debt crisis in Europe.  The economic news out of Europe remained mixed this week.  I don’t count that as a negative.  After all, there are periods when our own data have been mixed and yet the economy continues to struggle upward.  So at the moment, it is too soon to be concerned.  But it is reason to be alert.

     And:

Bottom line:  the US economy continues to improve albeit sluggishly.  I am worried about the potential impact on business and consumer confidence of the last as well as the upcoming budget battle.  The lousy consumer confidence number this week doesn’t help relieve that concern.  That said, lower sentiment numbers mean nothing unless they get translated into lower spending---and that hasn’t happened, at least not yet. 

The numbers out of Europe were mixed this week but not negative enough to warrant altering our forecast.

Monetary policy, more specifically QEInfinity, remains the major risk to our forecast for several reasons: (1) it fosters lousy fiscal policy, (2) the longer it goes on, the greater the risk that the transition from easy to tight money will cause severe dislocations and (3) the Fed may be in a position where it could lose control of the transition process [assuming it even has a plan and that the plan could actually work] to multiple sources---China, Japan, the Markets themselves to name a few.

This week’s data:

(1)                                  housing: weekly mortgage and purchase applications rose; September pending home sales declined but the Case Shiller home price index rose,

(2)                                  consumer: weekly retail sales were mixed as were September retail sales; consumer confidence dropped markedly; weekly jobless claims fell less than anticipated; the October ADP private payroll report showed jobs rising less than estimates,

(3)                                  industry: September industrial production and capacity utilization were better than expected; Chicago PMI was a blow out number; the October Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index was above consensus while the October Market PMI fell versus the September report; October light vehicle sales were flat with September; August business inventories and sales rose; the October Dallas Fed business activity index was disappointing,

(4)                                  macroeconomic: both the September PPI and CPI were tame; the FOMC left interest rates and QE unchanged though comments in the following press release were a bit more hawkish than expected.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 15615, S&P 1761) continue to trend higher.  The Dow’s Thursday close below 15550 raised questions about whether last Friday’s break above the upper boundary of its short term trading range was a head fake.  Yesterday’s finish at 15615 appears to confirm the short term trend (15198-20198) as up.  Meanwhile, the S&P remains within its short term uptrend (1701-1855)

Both of the Averages are well within their intermediate term (15198-20198, 1617-2199) and long term uptrends (5015-17000, 728-1850).

Volume on Friday was down; breadth improved but the flow of funds indicator continues to behave terribly.  The VIX fell, closing within its short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

The long Treasury was off 1%.  While it finished in a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend, it is close to invalidating the reverse head and shoulders pattern that I have been watching.  Such an occurrence would be a negative for bonds.  Finally, the whole fixed income complex took a shellacking of Friday.  I am not sure why; but I feel reasonably sure that if it continues, it would spill over into the equity market.

GLD traded down, ending within a very short term uptrend but a short term and intermediate term downtrend.  It also dropped below its 50 day moving average and appears to be developing a head and shoulders formation---which if completed would be a negative for GLD.

Bottom line:  all trends of both indices are up, though the strength of the Dow is open to question.  In my opinion, that sets up the upper boundaries of both of the Averages (17000/1850) long term uptrends as the likely price objectives.  If the downside is simply Fair Value (11575/1436), the risk reward from current levels is not all the attractive.

A trader still might want to play for another leg up but I would do so only if tight stops are used.  As a longer term investor, I think that the aforementioned risk/reward ratio is an invitation to lose money.  I would, however, take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

In the meantime, if one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

                Money flow into stocks on the cusp of a sell signal (short):

                Another divergence (short):

   Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (15615) finished this week about 34.9% above Fair Value (11575) while the S&P (1761) closed 22.6% overvalued (1436).  Incorporated in that ‘Fair Value’ judgment is some sort of half assed attempt at getting fiscal policy under control, a botched Fed transition from easy to tight money, a historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Europe.

The economy continues to track our forecast.  We did get a negative consumer confidence number this week---this on top of the poor consumer sentiment number last week.  These stats speak to my concern that the fiscal mess in DC will impact business and consumer sentiment which will in turn lead to slower economic growth.  That hasn’t shown up in the data yet and may not ever.  But until we know, it is on my list of worries.

Europe is likely still recovering, but there were more poor stats announced this week.  Nevertheless, overall the data flow is mixed and that is sufficient to keep our ‘muddle through’ scenario operative.  I am still worried about the EU bank stress tests particularly in light of the announcements that Rabobank, UBS and Barclays were under investigation for various and sundry fraud charges while RBS is in such bad shape that it is having to create a ‘bad bank’ to house the toxic assets still on its balance sheet.  On the latter point, I have maintained that one of the big risks to the financial system is that we still don’t know how much ‘junk’ remains on bank balance sheets.  This news only reinforces my concern

The general euphoria prevailing among investors regarding the likely continuation of QEInfinity took a mild hit this week.  The statement from the latest FOMC meeting was more hawkish (tapering starts sooner) than expected.  In addition, the Chinese central bank continues its tightening moves.  My point here is and has been that QE has to end, what prompts the end is not necessarily in the hands of the Fed,  but when it does, the Market impact is likely to be ugly and the longer it goes on, the uglier the impact.

Bottom line: the assumptions in our Economic and Valuation Models haven’t changed; but some of the risks have heightened: two poor consumer confidence numbers could impact spending, troubling revelations of fraud and solvency problems in the EU banks could lead to bankruptcies, the Chinese central bank continues its tightening moves and violence has again flared up in Syria. If any of these prove to be anything other than noise, they could have an impact on our forecast. 

In the meantime, I remain confident in the Fair Values generated by our Valuation Model---meaning that stocks are overvalued.  So our Portfolios maintain their above average cash position.  Any move to higher levels would encourage more trimming of their equity positions.

        This week, our Portfolios did nothing.

DJIA                                                    S&P

Current 2013 Year End Fair Value*                11600                                                  1440
Fair Value as of 11/30/13                                 11575                                                  1436
Close this week                                               15570                                                  1759

Over Valuation vs. 10/31 Close
              5% overvalued                                 12153                                                    1507
            10% overvalued                                 12732                                                   1579 
            15% overvalued                                13311                                                      1651
            20% overvalued                                 13890                                                    1723   
            25% overvalued                                   14468                                                  1795   
            30% overvalued                                   15047                                                  1866
            35% overvalued                                   15626                                                  1938
                       
Under Valuation vs.10/31 Close
            5% undervalued                             10996                                                      1364
10%undervalued                       10417                                                           1292            
15%undervalued                             9838                                                    1220

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years with somewhat higher inflation. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns,  managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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