Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Morning Call---The transition process is about to start

The Morning Call

9/18/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The rally continued though the indices (DJIA 15529, S&P 1794) remain out of sync on the short term trend.  The Dow is in a trading range (14190-15550), while the S&P is in an uptrend (1661-1815).

Both of the Averages are well within their intermediate term (14798-19798, 1581-2167) and long term uptrends (4918-17000, 715-1800).

Volume was flat, as was breadth.  The VIX was up fractionally, finishing within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

The long Treasury was up.  This action confirms the invalidation of its short term downtrend.  It now re-sets to a trading range and remains within an intermediate term downtrend.

GLD rose but closed within both its short and intermediate term downtrends.

Canadian billionaire predicts end of dollar as reserve currency (7 minute video):

Bottom line: the bulls still rule the roost in stocks despite little confirmation from bonds, gold, our internal indicator and the VIX.  Furthermore, the Averages are nearing the upper boundaries of an 80 year uptrend.  Of course, there is no law that says stocks can’t set a new upper boundary; although one would think that the long term outlook for the economy should be considerably more robust than at present for equities to justify such a move.

Stocks may very well continue to smoke to the upside.  But if they do our Portfolios will use the advance to lighten up on any stock trading in its Sell Half Range.
           
            A caution signal (short)?

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            US economic data yesterday were basically nondescript: weekly retail sales were mixed, August CPI was in line with estimates, homebuilder sentiment was flattish and the latest CBO outlook for the budget was short term positive, long term negative.  Overseas stats were much the same: EU auto sales were down but investor sentiment was up and Chinese direct foreign investments declined.

            Once again none of this mattered as all eyes were on the FOMC which began its latest meeting yesterday and will wrap up today with its usual press release and a bonus press conference with Bernanke.   Most of the talking heads opined that ‘tapering’ would, in fact, begin and that it would equal circa $10-15 billion reduced securities purchases per month.  Judging by yesterday’s pin action, the Market is happy with that initial move.

            However, as the author of the link below notes, this will mark the beginning of the transition process; that is, the clock is now started on whether the Fed can manage the process without either pushing the economy back into recession (too tight too quick) or igniting inflation (not tight enough, soon enough)---an accomplishment I am all too fond of pointing out that it has never done in its long and storied history. 

            To be sure, we may not know how the process plays out for sometime which would clearly give investors the opportunity to get even more jiggy about the economy, profits and how they are valued.  But sooner or later, they will have to face some tough issues, not the least of which are (1) what happens to all that money that has been pumped in to risk assets and which has to be paid back and (2) as John Hilsenrath pointed out in a link in yesterday’s Morning Call, the Fed’s own 2016 forecast has unemployment below 6% but inflation also quite low---a huge inconsistency that will have to resolved one way or the other.  I don’t know how those issues play out, but it appears to me that stocks are discounting a perfect outcome.

            This says nothing about the fiscal issues that are upon us; and if Obama’s news conference Monday (in which He took the time to condemn republicans on the budget resolution and the debt ceiling while He was offering condolences to the families of the victims in the naval shipyard massacre) is any sign of the acrimony that exists in DC right now, the next couple of weeks are going to be rocky.

Bottom line: in the big picture, today is an important day because it will likely witness the beginning of the Fed’s transition from an easing of unprecedented magnitude to more normal monetary policy.  Based on history, I don’t believe that it will be an easy or painless process---but that is one man’s opinion.

Shorter term, the fiscal issues both here (budget resolution, debt ceiling) and in Europe (German elections followed by re-addressing the crushing funding needs of southern Europe) are apt to be dominating the headlines for the next month.  Again, finding the solutions is not likely to be an easy process if indeed they can be found.

  The only question in my mind is, when do the Markets start discounting the inevitable?  Clearly to date, I have been wrong on its timing; and I certainly have little confidence that the Market is going to start to agree with me today.’

.......in my opinion, that stocks are way over valuing the likely earnings that can be produced from an economy on the current trajectory of the US.

            The latest from Doug Kass (medium):

            The latest from Todd Harrison (medium):

            The latest from Jim Grant (medium):

            For the bulls (short):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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