Wednesday, September 4, 2013

The Morning Call---Nobody wants war in Syria except our ruling class

The Morning Call

9/4/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            Yesterday was another roller coaster for the indices (DJIA 14844, S&P 1639).  The Dow remains within a short term trading range (14190-15550) and below its 50 and 100 day moving averages. 

The S&P by all rights has re-set to a short term trading range (1576-1687) by closing below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (1641-1796) for the last five trading days.  However, because this penetration has been so minor, I am hesitant to call for a re-set.  On the other hand, its rallies have been anemic and it remains below its 50 and 100 day moving averages.  In the final analysis, I am conflicted about making the ‘re-set’ call; so I am procrastinating.

            Both of the Averages finished within their intermediate term (14715-19715, 1565-2151) and long term uptrends (4918-17000, 715-1800).

            Volume rose; breadth improved.  The VIX declined.  It continues to meander directionless within its short term trading range.  Its intermediate term downtrend seems to be of little influence. 

            The long bond got whacked, falling back below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, thereby failing to confirm the break of this trend---not a plus for stocks.

            GLD rose, continuing to trade firmly within its very short term uptrend and above its 50 and 100 day moving averages.  On the other hand, it is also well within its short and intermediate term downtrends.  At this point, I think that the risk/reward of a GLD purchase is weighed modestly to the risk side.  Were it to retreat to the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and hold, that would alter that equation and I would be tempted to nibble.

Bottom line: the S&P has technically moved back in to unison with the DJIA, though I am not quite ready to make that call for the reasons stated above.  If there is any follow through to the downside, that would provide the impetuous for the change in trend---and that would not be a positive for stocks.  Other factors arguing for a more cautious approach to stocks (1) the indices having taken out their 50 and 100 moving averages and (2) yesterday’s reversal in the bond market, keeping it in a short term price downtrend.

All that said, the recent volatility in stocks, bonds and gold growing out of the potential US involvement in Syria makes a confident call in direction in any of these Markets almost impossible.  So I am taking the coward’s way out, remaining vague and noncommittal.  This is a Market to be avoided unless you are a skilled trader.

            NYSE margin debt near highs (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            The US economic stats released yesterday were mostly upbeat:  July construction spending and the August ISM manufacturing index surpassed expectations while the August Markit PMI came in slightly below estimates but in the plus nonetheless.

            Foreign data was also positive: the Chinese nonmanufacturing PMI as well as the EU manufacturing PMI were better than forecasts.

            The above numbers (good news is good news) along with Obama’s over-the-weekend crawfishing on Syria (insisting on congressional support for His plan [a] at the least, delayed the action {war} and [b] could result in a no action vote by congress) had investors getting jiggy in morning trading. Then Boehner came out, gave his support to Obama’s plans to bomb Syria (lessening the probability of a no action vote) and stocks gave up much of their earlier increases.

            Just to be clear, I am with the Market all the way on the Syrian issue.  Intervention is a negative: (1) the US has no strategic interest in Syria, (2) if Assad is deposed, he will likely be replaced by an equally anti-US regime, (3) there is a risk of a much larger conflagration if Russia and/or Iran react, (4) on the off hand chance that they don’t react, any US action will likely not be a positive for oil prices and, hence, the global economy, (5) Obama drew the ‘red line’ on His own; let Him suffer the consequences for His own foolish behavior, and finally, (6) there is no telling what the spill over effects will be on ‘tapering’, replacing Bernanke, the continuing budget resolution and the debt ceiling negotiations.

In other words, the US has its own set of problems that it is far more important to resolve than taking retribution for some dead Syrians---which I say with all due respect to those killed.  Any military action that allows our political class to gloss over or ignore those problems would be a negative for the electorate.  Certainly, investors have taken those issues off center stage for the moment.  But they are there, they have to be dealt with and soon.  And if they are not, the longer term economic and Market consequences may be much more important than avenging the unseemly death of what in all likelihood were not ‘innocent’ civilians but rather combatants and their families who have just as hostile an attitude toward the US as Assad. 

            ***last night the senate foreign relations committee approved military action in Syria.

Bottom line: stocks remain overvalued at least as calculated by our Valuation Model.  While the economy continues to improve, the transition from easy to tight money is upon us and, in my opinion that will not be a painless exercise.  In addition, our political class must deal with several contentious economic issues (the continuing budget resolution, the debt ceiling, the kick in of 2014 sequestration and the growing opacity of Obamacare) over the next 30 days.  Getting that job done responsibly maybe be more than any of us can expect.  But it will certainly be that much more difficult if we are fighting over intervention is Syria and/or trying to prevent its escalation once it starts. 

None of this makes me feel all warm and fuzzy on the inside about either the economy or the Market.  We may escape from these trials unscathed; but we may not.  And that should give us all pause when we contemplate our equity exposure.        

            The number one threat to the economy (medium):

            Who are you going to believe, the Fed or your lying eyes (medium):

            The latest from Mark Grant (medium):

            The latest from Marc Faber (9 minute video):

            More on valuation (short)

            The latest from Ed Yardeni (short):
            


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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