Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Paychex (PAYX) 2013 Review

Paychex Inc provides computerized payroll-accounting services, salary deposit services, automatic payroll tax payment and tax return filing services and human resource products and services to approximately 564,000 small and medium sized businesses.  The company has earned a 25%+ return on equity over the last 10 years and has grown profits and dividends 9-15% in the same time period.  While the weak employment environment resulted in a slight faltering in earnings in 2009-2010, PAYX has returned to a growth path as a result of:

(1) rising number of checks processed as well as an increase in revenue per check,

(2) acquisitions,

(3) increasing demand for health and benefits offerings,

(4) an aggressive cost control effort,

(5) an R&D effort designed to expand product offerings.

Negatives:

(1) a weak economy negatively impacts the growth of its client base,

(2) low interest rates are impacting ‘interest on funds held for clients’.

PAYX is rated A by Value Line, has no debt and its stock yields 3.6%.

  Statistical Summary

                  Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2003

PAYX         3.6%           6%                80%             8
Ind Ave       1.7             10*                 28               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

PAYX        0%            35%            2                25%            A
Ind Ave     18               18             NA              11              NA

*over one half of the companies in PAYX’s industry don’t pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: PAYX stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term the stock is in a trading range  (blue line at bottom is the lower boundary).  Intermediate term it is in an  uptrend (purple  lines).  Short term it is in an uptrend (brown line).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a full position in PAYX.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $19; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $41.      




9/13

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