Thursday, September 19, 2013

Mastercard (MA) 2013 Review

Mastercard is a global leader in electronic payments serving as a processor, franchisor and advisor to approximately 25,000 financial institutions for their credit, debit and other payment programs.  In addition, it manages a family of payment card brands (Mastercard, Mastercard Electronic, Maestro, Cirrus).  Importantly, MA does not extend credit; it simply acts as a toll collector and is paid on both transaction volume and dollar volume.  The company earns in excess of a 25% return on equity and has grown profits from $1.76 in 2004 to $21.94 in 2012 and its dividend  from $.09 in 2006 to $1.20 in 2012.  While the 2008-2009 pullback in global consumer spending impacted the gross dollar volume of transactions, the company continued to grow; further improvement should come as a result of:

(1) the global shift in the payments industry from paper to electronics,

(2) MA expands outside the US,

(3) innovation in its product portfolio [e-commerce, mobile commerce, pre-paid cards],

(4) a continuing stock buyback program.

Negatives:

the global credit crisis has impacted growth negatively,

difficulty controlling costs in a rapidly expanding business,

lawsuits involving currency conversions and antitrust,

tough regulatory environment.

Mastercard is rated A++ by Value Line, it has no debt and its stock provides a .4% yield.

Statistical Summary

                   Stock       Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                   Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2006

MA              .4%           22%               8%               4*
Ind Ave       2.1             12                  20                NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

MA            0%            51%            0                  37%           A++
Ind Ave     36              18              NA                17             NA

*MA has only paid a dividend for 7 years

     Chart

            Note: MA stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its June 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term the stock is in an uptrend; intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a full position in MA.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $540; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $760.  




9/13

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