Monday, July 15, 2013

The Morning Call--Continuing to watch S&P 1687


The Morning Call

7/15/13

The Market
           
    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P is nearing the upper boundary of its short term trading range.  A break above this level (1687) would re-set the short term trend to an uptrend.  Since the index would then be at an all time high, the only resistance would be that of the upper boundaries of its new short term uptrend (1750), its intermediate (2109) and long term uptrends (1800).  If that occurs and using the 1750/1800 range as upside potential, that amounts to between 3-6%.  On the other hand, if 1687 holds, the S&P may be developing a double, if not triple, top.



            Even though GLD moved up last week, it is still technically a very broken chart.



            The VIX broke through the lower boundary of a very short term uptrend.  If it finishes below it today, the trend will be negated---which would be a plus for stocks.
           


            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’

    Fundamental
    
      Investing for Survival

            Delusional assumptions: the problem for pensions and pensioners (medium):

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            June retail sales rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.8%; ex autos, they were down 0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%.

            The New York Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.47 versus forecasts of 5.00.

   Other

            China reported second quarter GDP down but in line, industrial production below expectations but retail sales above.

            JP Morgan slashes in half its forecast for second half US GDP economic growth rate (short):
            http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476337

            Quote of the day (short):

Politics

  Domestic

More on bank fraud (medium and today’s must read):

Top political donors 1989-2013---and no, the banks don’t top the list (short):

  International

            Troubled times for China (medium):










Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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