Thursday, May 9, 2013

The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert---Sell half of your PSE


The Morning Call

5/9/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The moon shot continues as the indices (DJIA 15105, S&P 1632) closed within all major uptrends (except the Dow which is above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend): short term (14323-15267, 1573-1647), intermediate term (13870-18870, 1472-2061) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume was flat; breadth mixed.  The VIX declined, finishing within its short and intermediate term downtrends (a positive for stocks).

            GLD rose but remains near the lower boundary of its intermediate term downtrend.  It continues within its long term uptrend.

Bottom line: the momentum to the upside continues relentlessly; and I have no idea what will slow it down much less stop it.  The technical divergences and distance from Fair Value are meaningless; psychology rules the day.  One day someone will notice that the emperor has no clothes but until that happens, prices are going up.

My strategy continues to be to take advantage of what I consider unwarranted optimism by lightening up on positions when the stock price trades into its Sell Half Range.  I believe that we will have a chance to buy these shares back at much lower price.’

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Only one secondary indicator was reported yesterday---mortgage and purchase applications---and they were okay.  Overseas, (1) Chinese trade figures came in better than anticipated; though the usual chorus of skeptics quickly started pounding on all the contradictions within the data, and (2) German industrial production was higher than expected.  This continues the trend toward better economic stats out of Europe and is encouraging.

            I am not sure any of the above matters as prices continue to melt up.  As I have noted earlier, the Market is really the headline; and investors seem to be only too happy to chase that headline to the upside.

Bottom line:  as wrong as I may be for being 40% in cash right now, the question in front of me is, what is the probability of the S&P being meaningfully lower than 1632 sometime in the next twelve months?  If it is reasonably high which I think that it is, then it makes no sense to be committing cash at this time. 

True prices can still go higher; but buying now assumes that I am smart enough to Buy and then get out before stocks pass through 1632 going to the downside.  I have proven to myself that I have no better than even odds of doing so, which makes that a mediocre bet at best. 

On the other hand, the number of times that I have Sold Half of a stock position and not had the opportunity to Buy that Half back at lower prices, I could count on one hand.  So I am sticking with the one who brung me to this dance.
    
            In the long run, we are all in trouble (medium):

            Junk debt falls below 5% yield (short):

            The latest from Paul Singer and Kyle Bass (short):

            Amazingly, this article is the justification of one of the Street’s biggest bulls for owning stocks.  Note that it depends entirely on low interest rates---which I would note are artificially low due to the triple down, all  in, balls to the wall central bank money bash which we all know is going to end well. (must read)

            And this from another bull (short):

     Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of Western Gas Ptrs (WES) has traded above the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, it is being Removed  from the High Yield Buy List.  The High Yield Portfolio will continue to Hold WES.

            Pioneer Southwest Energy Ptrs (PSE-$32) received a buyout offer from Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD-$138) for .2234 shares of PXD.  That puts the value of PSE at $30.80, i.e. a $1.20 per share premium to the deal price; and it will likely take some time before completion.  On the other hand, the deal could get a bump in value.  So the High Yield Portfolio will Sell one half of its position (now a premium to its exchange value) and wait to see if the exchange value is increased.  PSE is also being Removed from the High Yield Buy List.

            The stock price of Nu Skin Pharmaceuticals (NUS-$56) traded above the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range.  Since the High Yield Portfolio made a sale on an earlier move into its Sell Half Range, it is doing nothing.




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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