Friday, April 26, 2013

The Morning Call--Money printing cures all ills


The Morning Call

4/26/13
The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 14700, S&P 1585) had another good day, finishing within all major uptrends: short term (14144-14850, 1550-1624), intermediate term (13792-18792, 1459-2053), and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).  The S&P closed above its former all time high for the third day. 

In addition, yesterday’s pin action took the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P out of play.  That narrows the focus to whether or not the S&P will confirm its break to new highs.  The end date of the time element of our time and distance discipline is Monday.  Looking ahead, if the S&P does confirm its break, all the upper boundaries of the uptrends become important resistance.  However, I think the most important are those of the long term trends.  That would put the upside for the S&P from current levels at circa 10%.  While not to be sniffed at, after a 100% increase off the bottom, it seems insufficient to me to warrant spending cash expect for the most nimble trader.

Volume decline (keeping the pattern going of up prices on lower volume); breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose fractionally, leaving within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

GLD was up big, closing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend. It remains below the lower boundary of its short term downtrend and above the lower boundary of its long term uptrend.  I am waiting for the next move to the downside to measure its strength and magnitude before considering rebuilding this position.

            More from Barry (medium):

Bottom line:  yesterday’s move to the upside took the developing head and shoulders formation out of play.  The remaining technical issue is, will the S&P confirm its break to new highs?  If it does, the upside based on the upper boundary of the S&P long term uptrend doesn’t seem all that attractive given the age and magnitude of the current uptrend---though if I could trade worth a s**t, I would probably try to do so.  On the other hand if the S&P retreats back below 1576, the Market top scenario remains viable.

            Update on sentiment (short):

    Fundamental
    
      Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data was mixed with weekly jobless claims coming in lower than expected while the April Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index was a disappointment.  There is not a great deal of significance to either number since both are secondary indicators---though the KC Fed index is a bit less important an indicator than jobless claims.  On the other hand, the KC Fed index is a monthly stat while jobless claims is weekly making the former slightly more significant on a time basis.  Net, net there wasn’t much notable about the daily stats; certainly nothing to make me want to reconsider our forecast.

            The jobless numbers along with a better UK GDP figure got stocks off on the right foot that carried through the day.  Mid afternoon, there was some concerning headlines out of Europe: the Bundesbank dissed OMT in a paper to the German court, EU bank lending continued to decline and Spanish unemployment hit new all time highs.    None of these sounds particularly upbeat but investors remain hyped in anticipation of the ECB joining the money printing race at next week’s meeting.  So stocks sold off a little but remained solidly in the black through the close.

            The Bundesbank rejects the use of ‘outright monetary transactions’, i.e. one of Draghi’s bazookas, in an opinion delivered to the German Constitutional Court which rules in June on the OMT’s constitutionality (medium):

            Meanwhile, banking lending continues to decline in the eurozone (medium):

            Spanish unemployment hits all time high (short):

Bottom line: ‘central bank monetary expansion seems to be the fuel propelling stock prices higher because I sure can’t justify them on fundamentals.  Being a lousy trader, I am not good at rationalizing prices that are too far divorced from my version of reality.  It is particularly difficult this time around because of the extremes to which the central banks have taken monetary policy and the lack of any sound explanation of how they are going to unwind these measures without causing severe disruptions.

Until someone can ‘splain’ to me a reasonable end game, I am content to under perform as a price to avoid disaster.’

            Japan’s new wild and woolly fiscal/monetary policies and what they could mean (short):

            Searching for certainty in an uncertain Market (medium):
            http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/economy-us-economy-economic-growth-stock/4/24/2013/id/49459



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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