Thursday, April 4, 2013

The Morning Call and Subscriber Alert


The Morning Call

4/4/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The DJIA (14550) retreated once again below the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (13907-14582), although it remains above its all time high (14190).  The S&P (1553) also fell back.  However, as you know, it has never seriously challenged either its all time high (1576) or the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (1520-1594).  Both of the indices continue to trade within their intermediate term uptrends (13644-18644) and their long term uptrends (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            There was a lot of speculation after the close yesterday that the pin action may be signaling that the Market was rolling over.  While this has been my scenario for longer than I would like to admit, one day’s performance seldom can be pointed at as a turning point.  So I have no intention of declaring victory.  Indeed, technically speaking the Averages are solidly within every major uptrend.  So by definition, prices are going up until those trends start getting broken.

That said, the Market internals continue to deteriorate.  I mentioned advance/declines and the Russell 2000 yesterday.  Today, I would add the transports, the financials and the rising number of stocks penetrating or seriously challenging their 50 day moving averages.  Clearly, I can re-emphasize caution.

One final point, after the damage done yesterday, stocks are oversold; so a bounce is to be expected.  The strength and magnitude of that rebound will give us a hint as to whether the Market is topping.

            Volume rose; breadth was lousy.  The VIX rose but finished well within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD suffered some serious whackage, closing near the lower boundary of its short term downtrend but breaking through that developing support level.  Barring a significant turnaround today, expect GLD to challenge the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

Bottom line: Market internals weakened more yesterday.  If the S&P closes below 1546 on Friday, this will be an ‘outside’ week (meaning it traded above the previous week’s high but closed below the previous week’s low) which is indicative of an even more vulnerable market.

That said, it is way too soon to assume that the Market is rolling over.  Best to sit on our hands.  We have a great cash position; and it is much too early to be buying.

            ‘Sell in May and go away’ comes early (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday started out with some rough economic numbers: weekly mortgage applications, the ADP private payroll report and the ISM nonmanufacturing index were all disappointing.  That got investors’ day off on the wrong foot; although I would add that one day’s poor stats is meaningless in a long term economic sense.

            Then sentiment got whacked even harder when the US announced that it was sending missile defense units to Guam in response the North Korean saber rattling.  That is probably not a bad idea; but it is most likely that the Korean bluster is more about their own internal problems than anything beyond their borders.  The only leverage they have with the Chinese or the US is the threat of a nuclear launch.  Once they do it, (1) all that leverage is gone, not to mention that (2) retaliation will take them from the Dark Ages to the Stone Age.  On the other hand, we know so little about these clowns that their willingness to self destroy can’t be assumed to be zero.  Nevertheless, my guess is that any influence this situation is having on stock prices is short lived.

            The other surprising headline was the statement from the head of the San Francisco Fed that the Fed may reduce its monthly mortgage purchases by year end.  I don’t know if the guy was testing Market reaction at the behest of Bernanke, doing his best impression of Kim Jung Un, having a senior moment or just yakking because he likes to hear himself talk.  Consensus seems to be that it was not choice number one, which I tend to agree with; though I hope otherwise.  However, if somewhere in the bowels of the Fed, the gremlins are planning to switch the money machine to ‘slow’ or ‘stop’, Mr. Market is probably not going to like it (though I would cheer).

Bottom line: I wouldn’t read too much into any of yesterday’s headlines: unsatisfactory economic data, Korean threats or the musings from the San Francisco Fed.  Furthermore, as I have noted previously, we are in uncharted waters of the notion of ‘don’t fight the Fed’---we simply don’t know how this new version of the game will end.

My real worries, as you know, are that (1) the Fed keeps pumping and creates an even big bubble to burst than we have now or that investors do decide to fight the Fed and (2) the EU economy implodes from too much sovereign debt and an overleveraged financial system.  In the end, stocks are overvalued and you never know what the catalyst will be that brings investors to their collective senses.  

            I remain quite happy with our cash position.

            An overview of Europe’s current economic situation (medium):

            The CEO of Saxo Bank on Cyprus (medium):

            Contagion starts small (medium and today’s must read):

            More from David Stockman (medium):

            Portfolio cash allocations are at 16 month high (short):

     Subscriber Alert

            Yesterday, several stocks traded below the upper boundary of the Buy Value Range and accordingly are being Added to their respective Buy Lists.

            In the Dividend Growth Portfolio: Nucor (NUE-$43).  The Portfolio owns a full position in NUE and will not be Buying additional shares.

            In the High Yield Portfolio: Western Energy Ptrs (WES-$56).  The Portfolio owns a full position in WES and will not be Buying additional shares.

            In the Aggressive Growth Portfolio: Oracle (ORCL-$32).  The Portfolio owns a full position in ORCL and will not be Buying additional shares.




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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