Thursday, April 18, 2013

Cummins Inc (CMI) 2013 Review


Cummins Inc designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel engines for  heavy, medium and light duty trucks, autos, buses as well as industrial, electric power generation and engine related components markets.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 12-20% rate over the last ten years earning a 20%+ return on equity.  Like most heavy industrial firms, CMI earnings can be somewhat volatile.  However, it  should continue to grow at an above average pace as a result of:

(1)    it is positioned to benefit from trends in emission standards, fuel economy and increased demand for electricity,

(2)    introduction of new products,

(3)    an aggressive stock buy back program.

Negatives:

(1)    economic weakness has a major impact on sales,

(2)    it expects flat sales in 2013.

CMI is rated A by Value Line, has a 12% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.3%

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2003

CMI           1.7%          14%              22%             7
Ind Ave      1.6               5                 22               NA

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

CMI         11%           25%           2                   10%          A
Ind Ave    41              18            NA                   7             NA

     Chart

            Note: CMI stock made great initial progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its March 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 50% in CMI.  The stock is on the Aggressive Growth Buy List; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $194.




4/13

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