Friday, March 22, 2013

The Morning Call--On to Plan D


The Morning Call

3/22/13
The Market
           
    Technical

            Cyprus miraculously reappeared in investor consciousness yesterday.  As a result, the DJIA (14431) declined below the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (13775-14443) for the first time in two weeks; though it remains above its former all time up (14190).

            The S&P (1545) finished below its former all time high (1576) as well as the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (1502-1576).
           
            Both of the Averages closed remain within their intermediate term uptrends (13543-18543, 1436-2030) and their long term uptrends (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Volume declined; breadth deteriorated significantly.  The VIX spiked to the upside but continued to trade with its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD moved up, finishing again at roughly the mid point of its short term downtrend.   A short term support level as well as a very short term uptrend continue to develop.

Bottom line: the indices got a bit more in sync yesterday as the Dow retreated back within its short term trading range.  However, it is still well above its previous all time high, leaving it at odds with the S&P.  While this partial resolution of nonconfirmation was to the negative, I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on that at this moment.  After all, both of the Averages are still in uptrends in every time cycle.  

I am not backing off of my position that stocks are overvalued.  I am just saying that from a technical standpoint, one can’t suggest a top has been made until those uptrends start getting challenged. 

Finally, it is important to note that there is still no confirmation of a breakout to the upside.

            Where stocks are in various cycles (short):

            Sentiment update:

  Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data were positive: existing home sales were up though slightly less than anticipated, the Philly Fed index was stronger than expected and February leading economic indicators came in ahead of forecast.  The US continues to plug along despite global issues---which keeps our outlook in tact.

            Internationally, developments weren’t quite as cheery, though the Chinese PMI was healthier than estimates.  On the other hand, EU flash PMIs were terrible; and more importantly, the ECB basically issued an ultimatum to Cyprus---come up with a plan by Monday or else.

            Here is a look at the PMI stats (short):

            And here is an analysis of the ECB ultimatum:

            ECB pushes Cyprus over the brink (medium):
           
            More on the causes of Cyprus’ problems (medium):

            Later in the day, Cypriot officials came up with a Plan C, which involved taking the most broke bank, breaking it into a ‘good’ bank and a ‘bad’ bank, then raising funds via bond sales with assets as collateral and nationalizing the state pension system---which the ECB has now also rejected.

            Bottom line: the Cyprus situation remains in too great a state of flux to be making assumptions about how it is going to play out;  and to be clear, it doesn’t even matter what happens to Cyprus because it is too small to have an impact on the EU much less the global economy.

However, what is important is how the crisis is resolved.  Any solution (such as the original ECB proposal) that: (1) damages the credibility of the eurocrats to manage the EU sovereign/bank debt crisis (2) impairs depositor confidence in their home country banks, (3) triggers counterparty risk on Cyprus debt or (4) creates potential political conflict between Russia and the EU would likely have ramifications beyond simply an extremely small island nation going toes up.

I am not suggesting any of the above will occur.  Indeed, if they don’t, then I will have to re-evaluate my tail risk assumptions regarding the eurocrats’ ability to hold the EU together and keep it functioning long term as a viable economic entity. 

But until we know, I am on the sidelines.

            Thoughts on why ‘muddling through’ seems to be working despite mounting problems (medium):

            More on valuation (short):

            And:

            Will profit margins really hold up (short):

            The latest from Gary Shilling (medium):

     Subscriber Alert

            The stock price of Cato (CATO) traded below the lower boundary of its Buy Value Range but remains above its Stop Loss Price.  Hence, it is being Removed from the High Yield Buy List; but the High Yield Portfolio will continue to Hold CATO.



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

No comments:

Post a Comment