Thursday, January 17, 2013

The Morning Call--Compromise is not the same as doing the right thing

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The Morning Call

1/17/13
The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 13511, S&P 1472) were mixed yesterday (Dow down, S&P up), closing within both their short term uptrends (13066-13757, 1419-1487) and their intermediate term uptrends (13152-18152, 1392-1987).  The 13682/1474 resistance barrier remains in tact; I continue to believe that the evidence suggests that these levels will be surmounted.  However, the longer that it isn’t, the more likely the ‘double top’ scenario gains credence.

            Volume rose; breadth weakened.  The VIX fell, finishing within its intermediate term downtrend.

            GLD was up a tad, remaining within its short term downtrend and its intermediate term trading range.  It also closed above the upper boundary of that very short term downtrend for the second day.

            Now the Dutch may want their gold back (short):

Bottom line:  the Averages have stalled, at least temporarily, just below the September 2012 resistance highs.  While the this week’s pin action is quite typical of the digestive process that takes place following an extreme overbought condition, the question still remains, can the indices surmount the 13682/1474 barrier with the debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut debates drawing nearer?  I continue to think that they can but the longer they remain stalled, the more momentum seeps away.  I remain willing to Sell stocks that trade into their Sell Half Ranges, the positive technical bias notwithstanding.

            The truth about the predictive value of ‘as goes the first week, so goes the year’ (short):

            NYSE short interest down substantially (short):

            Chart of the day (short):

            Another long term mean reversion chart:
           
            A look at Market internals (must read):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data was largely positive: weekly mortgage and purchase application were up strong, reported inflation (CPI) remains under control and industrial production was above expectations.  If you haven’t noticed, the numbers have been getting better in the last couple of weeks---which clearly keeps all those recession bears at bay and reinforces our positive (though sub par) growth forecast.

            The Fed also released its latest Beige Book report which continues to sound like a Xerox copy of our outlook---controlled growth throughout the economy with concerns over government fiscal irresponsibility acting as a headwind.

            Russia warns of currency wars (medium):

            Gun control bumped the debt ceiling/sequestration/spending cut debate out of the lime light, at least for one day.  However, this problem is not going away and it is getting closer.
           
            Goldman on the debt ceiling/government shutdown/sequestration (medium):

                Citi on the debt ceiling (short):


Bottom line:  stock prices continue to trade about 5% above Fair Value as calculated by our Valuation Model and that assumes that none of the potential ‘fat tails’ (a shut down of the government, a crisis in Europe) occur.   The most likely reason that our Model could be too conservative would be a ‘grand bargain’ reached over our budget deficit in which spending is cut sufficiently to began to drive the deficit to GDP and spending to GDP ratios meaningfully lower.  Many analysts believe that will happen based primarily on the notion that ultimately our political class will do the right thing.  And they may be right. 

My problem is that doing the right thing is not the same thing as coming to a compromise.  In other words, I don’t think the GOP will shut the country down over the debt ceiling issue; but I also don’t think that they really want to cut spending enough to get the US back on a fiscally responsible track. 

So while I don’t think the ‘fat tail’ of a government shutdown will occur, I don’t see an improvement in either corporate earnings growth (which is already benefiting from near historically high profit margins) or the earnings discount factor (P/E ratio) in a scenario in which government continues to usurp investment capital via higher taxes and finances an unsustainable level of nonproductive consumption with the aid of a Fed that prints an ever increasing amount of worthless paper.  Until the ruling class demonstrates fiscal responsibility, I am unwilling to chase stock prices higher.

            Ten themes for 2013 (medium):

            Five reasons to be bullish (short):

            And six reasons to be bearish (short):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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