Tuesday, December 11, 2012

The Morning Call--Don't get too complacent

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The Morning Call

12/11/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 13169, S&P 1418) spent the day backing and filling and ended the day basically flat; hence, they remained (1) above their 50 day moving averages for the second day, (2) within their short term trading ranges [12460-13302, 1343-1424] and (3) within their intermediate term uptrends [12908-17908, 1363-1958].

            Volume fell; breadth was mixed.  The VIX was up but continued to trade below its 50 day moving average (a positive of stocks) and between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            GLD had a good day but remained below its 50 day moving average and above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.

Bottom line: the Averages remain locked in very tight short term trading ranges (12982-13302, 1395-1424); although they did close for the second day above their 50 day moving averages. As long as this directionless trading continues (in a zone that happens to coincide with our current 2012 Year End Fair Value), I see no reason to either Buy or Sell.  That said, the confirmed break of their 50 day moving averages (which will occur at the close today) suggests that any break out of the current very tight trading range will be to the upside.
           
    Fundamental
    
            No economic data was reported yesterday.

            That left the Market to contemplate:

(1)     the fiscal cliff.  As you probably know, Boehner and Obama met over the weekend.  Afterwards, both sides did its obligatory mewing about being willing to compromise,  Yesterday saw little to add to that story.  There were some minor players offering their opinions---which are worthless in the scheme of things.  In fact, I think that the absence of any speechifying by the major players is a hopeful sign that progress is being made.  On the other hand, I wouldn’t  bet any  money on it.

(2)     international developments of which there were many: [a] data out of Japan suggests that it is slipping into recession, [b] the trade data out of China was not good {note---it is harder for them to lie about trade data since someone else is on the other side of the trade}, and [c] Italian PM Monti announced his resignation effective after the latest budget is agreed upon.

                 EU clings to failed policies (medium):

                Central bankers contemplate going beyond ‘all in’ (medium):

Bottom line:  I don’t think it wise to be lulled to sleep by a quiet Market day.  The fiscal cliff and the EU sovereign/bank debt crisis are far from being solved.  Of course, there is likely to be a fiscal cliff agreement---unsatisfactory as it may be.  I don’t have a problem with investors assuming that this will occur; but I do think that they are being a bit too sanguine about the process, especially with stocks slightly overvalued (as calculated by our Model). 

More important, I continue to be at a loss to explain the casualness with which investors accept that all is going to end well in Europe.  Because both economic and political conditions are deteriorating and the eurocrats look to taking a well deserved break from all that heavy lifting that they have been doing (not).  As you know, our Models assume a muddle through scenario but it is less because I believe it and more because I can’t figure out how to Model and discount not muddling through.  And that is the .... reason for our large cash position as well as our GLD holding.

            What scares Paul Singer the most (medium):

            Risk versus uncertainty (medium):         

            The political class is the biggest risk to the Market in 2013 (short/medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Equity yields: a screaming buy or a reversion to the mean (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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