Wednesday, December 5, 2012

The Morning Call--All quiet on the western front

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The Morning Call

12/5/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 12951, S&P 1407)  meandered lower yesterday, closing within (1) their short term trading ranges [12460-13302, 1343-1424] and (2) their intermediate term uptrends [12875-17875, 1360-1455].

            Volume rose; breadth was mixed.  The VIX rose again, finishing above its 50 day moving average for the second day.  It remains between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

            GLD got whacked, closing below the 164.00 interim support level.  Speculation is that this selling is coming from the funds that have big profits in gold and want to take their capital gains prior to 12/31.  That notwithstanding, as a result of the penetration of the 164 level, our Portfolios are Selling the remainder of their trading position (that leaves a 10% investment position in GLD). GLD continued to trade above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.  

            Bottom line: yesterday’s follow through to the downside sets 13302/1424 as the upper boundaries of Averages new short term trading ranges.  That said, the follow through wasn’t all that impressive after an ‘outside’ down day; so apparently the bulls aren’t intimidated by the combo of the Averages bouncing off their 50 day moving averages and then clocking an ‘outside’ down day. 

With the S&P in the upper half of its short term trading range and slightly above Fair Value, there is nothing compelling about putting cash to work.

            Another sign of the need for clarity (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            The only economic data yesterday were weekly retail sales.  The week over week numbers didn’t look so hot but that was because they were following the week of Black Friday; the year over year figures looked fine.

            ***over night the Chinese services PMI nosedived.

            Aside from the political bickering over the fiscal cliff, the day was fairly quiet---hence, the relatively aimless, non volatile trading for the day.

Bottom line:  while all was quiet on the western front yesterday, there is clearly more to come on the fiscal cliff as well as the EU sovereign/bank debt crisis.   For the moment the fiscal cliff is the focus of investor attention; however as you know, I think that (1) it will ultimately have less to do with the economic outlook than the EU problem though (2) on a short term basis it could still roil the Markets

Since our Valuation Model has a non-optimal resolution to the fiscal cliff built into its Market Fair Value judgment, any price weakness could offer a buying opportunity---absent any progress in Europe.  That has been my view for some time; however, I have been thinking (always a danger) that any negative mispricing of the fiscal cliff outcome could end up providing some of the cushion I really want because of the EU crisis. 

In other words, I don’t need a cushion to Buy stocks for fear of a fiscal cliff because (1) I don’t think that it is going to happen and (2) any political solution is already in our Model.  I need the cushion because of the risk of a serious EU problem; but if I get that cushion because of a fiscal cliff mispricing, I may use the occasion to Add to stocks.  I worry that such a strategy may be too cute by half; so I am still thinking about it---I’m thinkin’, I’m thinkin’.

            And you thought conditions in Greece were improving (medium):

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            Is the Japanese market a model for our own or is it different this time? (short):

            For the real bears amongst you (medium):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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