Saturday, October 20, 2012

The Closing Bell--Stocks are at a critical juncture

                                                                                                                          
The Closing Bell

10/20//12

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast

           
            2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised):        +1.0- +2.0%
                        Inflation (revised):                                                             2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised):                   5-10%

            2013

                        Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                       +1.0-+2.0
                        Inflation                                                                           2.0-2.5
                        Corporate Profits                                                              0-7%

   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend    (?)                        13462-14293
Intermediate Up Trend                            12593-17593
Long Term Trading Range                      7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend                                       4546-15148        
                                               
                        2011    Year End Fair Value                               10750-10770

                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                     11290-11310

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Up Trend     (?)                            1445-1537
                                    Intermediate Term Up Trend                     1327-1925 
                                    Long Term Trading Range                        766-1575
                                    Very LT Up Trend                                         651-2007

                        2011    Year End Fair Value                                      1320-1340         

                        2012    Year End Fair Value                                      1390-1410

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                              24%
            High Yield Portfolio                                        25%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                           27%

Economics/Politics
           
The economy is a modest positive for Your Money.  The economic data this week was the best that we have had in a long time:  Positives: weekly purchase applications, September retail sales, September industrial production; September core CPI; the September leading economic indicators and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.  Negatives: weekly jobless claims, weekly mortgage applications, the NY Fed manufacturing index, September existing home sales and September CPI.  Neutral: weekly retail sales; August business inventories and sales. 

The important numbers were September retail sales, September industrial production, September leading economic indicators---all of which came in better than expected---and weekly jobless claims---which was a disappointment.  So score it three to one for the good guys. 

This data is another important sign that the risk of recession is receding.  It could also be a signal that the economic growth rate could pick up in 2013---‘could be’ being the operative words.  As I often say, one week’s data does not a trend make; so we really must wait for additional quantitative support before considering an upgrade to our estimates.  However, if we get another week or two of the kind of upbeat stats we received this week, then I may consider adding ‘an improving long term growth rate’ to our list of Pluses. 

That said, any increase will be a modest one for one simple reason: the growth stunting problems of excessive debt creation, too much easy money and an over regulated economy have yet to be dealt with and until they are, we are stuck with anemic economic growth,

Furthermore, as I mentioned in Wednesday’s and Thursdays’ Morning Calls, our 2013-2015 outlook is more dependent than anytime in my memory on the outcome of an election. 

An Obama victory would insure a continuation of below average secular growth; but with the caveat that at some point, even more fiscal, monetary, regulatory excesses  will take their toll, resulting in an even more stagnant economy or worse. 

A Romney success, assuming he fulfills his election promises (again a key operative statement) would likely mean a slowdown or even a mild recession as fiscal and monetary policies are brought back in line with economic reality.  On the other hand, that would set the stage for the economy to return to its historical secular growth path likely starting in late 2014 or early 2015.

And (medium):

However, since this election appears to be a toss up, I am going to wait for the outcome before considering any revisions to our 2013 forecast.  That has the added benefit of a couple more weeks of data to either confirm or not an increase in the level of economic activity.

All that said, for the time being, our forecast remains:

‘a below average secular rate of recovery resulting from too much government spending, too much government debt to service, too much government regulation, a financial system with an impaired balance sheet. and a business community unwilling to hire and invest because the aforementioned along with the likelihood a rising and potentially corrosive rate of inflation due to excessive money creation and the historic inability of the Fed to properly time the reversal of that monetary policy.’

Update of big four economic indicators (medium):

The pluses:

(1) our improving energy picture.  The US is awash in cheap, clean burning natural gas; and the entire energy picture will likely get better if the GOP regains the White House.   In addition to making home heating more affordable, low cost and abundant energy serves to draw those manufacturers back to the US who are facing rising foreign labor costs and relying on energy resources that carry negative political risks.  Most important, less dependence even independence from Middle East oil dramatically enhances our flexibility in strategic planning.


(2) the seeming move of the electorate towards embracing fiscal responsibility.  Romney/Ryan have at last began taking a firm stand on the issues and it shows in the polling results.  This is not to say that they will win.  And it is not to say that if they do win, they will take the steps necessary to get control of the federal budget, stop the explosion of fiat money and reduce the regulatory burden that has been imposed on the electorate in the last four years.  But it could be a start; and every long journey begins with a first step as proverb goes.

I hate being cynical about my country; but from an investment standpoint, I believe it necessary in order to protect Your Money.  Hence, given the long history of both political parties subordinating the public good to their private objectives, I don’t think it wise to assume our economic problems are solved by a Romney/Ryan victory.  They must prove themselves with actions not words before I will consider altering our strategy and asset allocation.  So I keep this on our list of positives but driven primarily by hope.
           
The negatives:

(1) a vulnerable banking system.  State’s Attorneys’ General continue to file suit against the banks for various and sundry offenses.  But there has been no new dramatic revelations of wrong doing or accounting shenanigans. However, the big banks remain too big to fail, their willingness to assume risk in their investment banking/trading operations appears undiminished and their balance sheets remain as opaque as ever.

My concern here is that: [a] investors ultimately lose confidence in our financial institutions and refuse to invest in America and [b] the recent scandals are simply signs that our banks are not as sound and well managed as we have been led to believe and, hence, are highly vulnerable to future shocks, particularly a collapse of the EU financial system.
     
(2)   ‘another week, nothing done on the ‘fiscal cliff’ and no prospects anytime soon.  As you know, my position on the ‘fiscal cliff’ has been  that in the end, the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts will not occur; or if they do, they will be quickly reversed.  Whoever wins in November will be able to forge a compromise do something in January to alter this outcome.

That position took a blow this week as Obama vowed to veto any proposed solution to the ‘fiscal cliff’ that didn’t include higher taxes on the wealthy---something that has been an anathema to the Republicans to date.  So it would appear that unless one party or the other makes a clean sweep in the elections, the political calculus may be setting up for a world class game of chicken, with the outcome much less certain than suggested in the previous paragraph.

A problem related to the ‘fiscal cliff’ is the potential rise in interest rates and its impact on the fiscal budget.  As I have noted previously, the US government’s debt has grown to such a size that its interest cost is now a major budget line item---and that is with rates at/near historic lows.  Moreover, government debt continues to increase and the lion’s share of this new debt is being bought by the Fed. 

Making matters even worse, under QEIII the Fed is adding another $40 billion a month in mortgages to its balance sheet.

So the risk here is two fold: [a] to the Fed---its balance sheet is levered to the point that Lehman Bros. looks like it was a AAA credit.  So if interest rates go up {and prices go down}, the very thin equity piece of the balance sheet would disappear.  The Fed would then be technically bankrupt. and [b] to the Treasury---it must pay the interest charges.  Hence, if rates go up, the interest costs to the government go up; and it they go up a lot, then this budget line item will explode and make all the more difficult any vow to reduce government spending as a percent of GDP.

(3)   rising inflation:

[a] the potential negative impact of central bank money printing.  Draghi and Bernanke went ‘all in’ for monetary easing and have been joined by the central banks of Japan, China, Australia and South Korea.  This week the Bank of Thailand  followed suit.  So the world is awash in liquidity.

‘The risk of a massive global liquidity infusion is, of course, inflation.  The bulls argue that thus far, all this money has gone into bank reserves [meaning it has not been spent or lent], that as long as banks are too scared to lend and businesses to borrow, it will remain unspent and unlent and therefore will have no inflationary impact.  And they are absolutely correct.  But the whole point of the Fed’s exercise, i.e. QEIII, is to encourage banks to lend and businesses to invest.  So on the off chance that the plan works, inflationary pressures will grow unless the Fed withdraws the aforementioned reserves before inflation kicks in.

And therein lies the rub.  [a] Bernanke has already said {twice} that when it comes to balancing the twin mandates of inflation versus employment, he would err on the side of unemployment {that is, he won’t stop pumping until he is sure unemployment is headed down}.  That can only mean that the fires of inflation will already be well stoked before the Fed starts tightening and [b] history clearly shows that the Fed has proven inept at slowing money growth to dampen inflationary impulses---on every occasion that it tried.  Why will this time be any different?


[b]       a blow up in the Middle East.  Al Qaeda is assassinating foreign diplomats across the region, there is now enough military might cruising the Persian Gulf to reenact the Battle of Midway and Israel is once again doing some serious saber rattling.  

None of this is to say that a disaster or war is eminent; but clearly the tensions are high enough that if one party missteps, the odds of some kind of confrontation are not de minimus.  If that is the case, then one of the consequences is almost assuredly higher oil prices which, at the least, will act as a hindrance to US expansion and, at the worse, could well push the economy into recession and add fuel to inflationary impulses  And this says nothing about the US being drawn into yet another ground war in the Middle East.

[c]        now that the harvest season is in full swing, it appears that the corn crop is coming in better than expected.  Ag commodity prices has stabilized {except for hogs} though at levels well above six months ago; and we are starting see those higher prices impact on producer costs in their third quarter earnings reports.   However, it is not yet clear how much of this ultimately gets passed on the consumers.  But we will know soon enough.

(4)  finally, the sovereign and bank debt crisis in Europe remains the biggest risk to our forecast.  Not much happened this week by way of dealing with the severe difficulties facing Greece and Spain---and that, of course, is the problem.  Nothing is happening while the continent slips into recession and growing social unrest; and the longer nothing happens, the greater the risk of that multiple countries implode.

Of course, as long as voters and investors go along with this charade, a ‘muddle through’ scenario will remain operative.  But that doesn’t mean that  the European ‘tail risk’ has gone away.  So while our forecast remains that the EU will somehow ‘muddle through’, the risk of that not occurring is still substantial and growing.

                
Bottom line:  the US economy seems to have swung from a period of disappointing progress to one that could be presaging a mild pick up in the rate of growth.  While it almost certainly puts off the talk of recession, it is still a bit early to be getting jiggy about anything other than ‘a slow sluggish recovery’---although clearly, a couple more weeks like we have just had and I will likely have to make some upward revisions. 

That said, this would not be a return to historical secular growth rates.  Our deficit is still too big; our debt is still too large; the Fed remains out of control; and our tax and regulatory environment still too oppressive.  Correcting those problems will take time and involve some pain and may not even happen if Obama is re-elected or Romney doesn’t live up to his campaign promises.

The political class did nothing to help this scenario this week.  Quite the contrary, Obama upped the ante on the ‘fiscal cliff’ by pledging to veto any measure that didn’t include tax hikes on the ‘rich’. 

On the other hand, Romney is making the right noises and if elected will hopefully follow through with a more fiscally responsible agenda.  However, as you know, I regard this with healthy skepticism, given the historical performance of the GOP.  I am not saying his routine is all bulls**t.  I am saying actions speak louder than words; and until we get action, our forecast will remain unchanged.
  
In the meantime, the Fed is running the presses 24/7. No matter who wins the election, we are likely looking at rising inflation next year.  Longer term, barring a miracle, this whole QE process is likely to end very badly, in my opinion.

Finally, the EU is doing what it does best which is lie to its citizens for the sake of preserving a bureaucratic wet dream.  I am not smart enough to know what happens next; but I do believe that unless the eurocrats get real with their citizens and their policies---and soon, the end will be uglier than I am now assuming. 

Why Rajoy’s strategy won’t work (medium):

Why nothing is working (medium):

For the moment, this is all reflected in our Models.

This week’s data:

(1)                                  housing: weekly mortgage applications fell but purchase applications were up; September housing starts and building permits soared while existing home sales dropped,

(2)                                  consumer: weekly retail sales were OK but September retail sales were quite positive; weekly jobless claims rose dramatically,   

(3)                                  industry: the October NY Fed manufacturing index came in worse than expected while the Philly Fed index was stronger than estimates; August business inventories were a bit stronger than anticipated, but sales were not as good; September industrial production was twice forecasts,

(4)                                  macroeconomic:    September CPI was hotter than estimates though core CPI was below forecasts; the September leading economic indicators came in much stronger than expected.


The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

Friday the indices (DJIA 13343, S&P 1433) busted through the lower boundaries of their short term uptrends [13462-14293, 1445-1537] and are approaching the 13302/1422 former resistance now support levels.  In addition, the Dow broke below its   50 day moving average while the S&P closed right on its (13351/1433).  As I noted the last time the lower boundaries of the short term uptrends were challenged, I think all three of the aforementioned supports will serve in tandem, i.e. either they will all break or they all won’t.  In the meantime, our time and distance discipline is now operative on the short term uptrend boundaries.

The Averages remained above the lower boundaries of their intermediate term uptrends (12593-17593, 1327-1925).

Volume on Friday rose considerably while breadth (advance decline, flow of funds, up/down volume, and our internal indicator) was negative.  Further the charts on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 look really bad.  The VIX spiked, taking it above its 50 day moving average and leaving it in the broad zone between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

GLD was down, finishing below the interim support level, only slightly above its 50 day moving average and well above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.  The break of the interim support level is of concern to me.  Since over half of our GLD is a trading position, our Portfolios will likely Sell one quarter of that Monday morning at the open and another quarter if GLD breaks its 50 day moving average.

            Bottom line:

(1) the DJIA and S&P are in uptrends, both in the short term [13462-14293, 1445-1537]---though this trend is currently being challenged---and the intermediate term [12593-17593, 1327-1925],

(1)   long term, the Averages are in a very long term [78 years] up trend defined by the 4546-15148, 651-2007 and a shorter but still long term [13 years] trading range defined by 7148-14198, 766-1575. 


   Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (13343) finished this week about 19.0% above Fair Value (11210) while the S&P (1433) closed 3.2% overvalued (1388).  Incorporated in that ‘Fair Value’ judgment is a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Europe and a sluggish recovery at home that isn’t likely to improve until we change the personnel in Washington.

The economy continues to plug along and may even be straining for a bit higher growth rate.  Of course, it was only a couple of weeks ago that I was reviewing disappointing economic data and cautioning not to get beared up  So it is a bit too soon to be tip toeing through the tulips. In addition, even if I make the positive assumption that the economy may actually kick its growth rate up a notch, I would suggest that it won’t be by much and will barely alter our current long term outlook---big adjustments long term  requires institutional change and we are nowhere near to that.

And speaking of institutional change (and I wish that I wasn’t), the election now appears to be a dead heat.  So the chances for ‘a change in personnel in Washington’ are increasing.  That said, that ‘change in personnel’ is not to be confused with a GOP victory in November.  A change in the ruling party means nothing without a change in policies; and we won’t know if policies are really going to change until we get into the new year.

So at the moment, all we can do is wait for developments.  As a final note, in the absence of a ‘change in personnel (policies)’, our forecast for a sluggish economy growing below its historical secular rate and a rising risk of inflation will likely remain our forecast for the next five years.

         All that said, I continue to believe that near term the big Kahuna of risks is the probability of severe economic dislocations in Europe.  Like our own sorry political class, the eurocrats  are focused on insuring the survival of their bureaucratic infrastructure versus helping their citizens get out of the horrendous economic circumstances in which they find themselves. 

          Greece is teetering on the brink of economic and social collapse, the Spanish elite are in the midst of a giant exercise in self delusion while the EU leadership spent the last two days yakking, drinking whiskey, slapping themselves on the back and telling each other how smart they are---but doing nothing to correct the financial deterioration of Mediterranean Europe.  

            The last act of this play hasn’t even started yet and it is already a tragedy of such proportion to make Macbeth look like Saturday Night Live.   Yet hope springs eternal.  Investors continue to give the eurocrats the benefit of the doubt; and as long as they do, ‘muddle through’ will be the operative scenario.  And as long as that occurs, it gives the eurocrats more time to develop and implement a real ‘muddle through’ solution. 

        That, of course, is our forecast; but my confidence in it wanes with each passing week.  Even more bothersome, I have no idea about the magnitude of the economic consequences if Spain and/or Italy implodes.

        As a result, our Portfolios are carrying an abnormally high level of cash for a Market that is only about 3% overvalued (as defined by the S&P).  In addition, I maintain my focus on our Sell versus our Buy Discipline.

       My investment conclusion:  stocks (as defined by the S&P) are overvalued (as defined by our Model). However, making this slightly overvalued situation much more hazardous is that (1) enormous ‘tail risk’ exists if the EU sovereign/debt crisis is not properly addressed and (2) stock prices seem to be driven largely by the fear of fighting a far too easy, money printing Fed.  I have no clue how long this will go on; but it is a Market that is too risky for me to want to add to equity positions at these prices.
  
            The latest from David Rosenberg (medium/long but a must read):

            Our Portfolios took no actions this week.

       Bottom line:

(1)                             our Portfolios will carry a high cash balance,

(2)                                we continue to include gold and foreign ETF’s in our asset mix because we continue to believe that inflation is a major long term risk.  An investment in gold is an inflation hedge and holdings in other countries provide exposure to better growth opportunities.  However, the likelihood of a continued strengthening in the dollar argues for less emphasis on these investment alternatives over the intermediate term.

(3)                                defense is still important.

DJIA                                                    S&P

Current 2012 Year End Fair Value*                11300                                           1400
Fair Value as of 10/31/12                                 11210                                                  1388
Close this week                                                13343                                                  1433

Over Valuation vs. 10/31 Close
              5% overvalued                                 11760                                                    1457
            10% overvalued                                 12331                                                   1526 
            15% overvalued                             12891                                             1596
            20%overvalued                                  13452                                                     1665
            25% overvalued                                 14012                                               1735
           
Under Valuation vs.10/31 Close
            5% undervalued                             10649                                                      1318
10%undervalued                                  10089                                                  1249    15%undervalued                             9528                                                    1179

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years with somewhat higher inflation. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns,  managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.








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